When the apocalypse strikes, scientists say there’s no use running for the hills.
Instead, anyone who really wants to outlast the end of days should make their way to Australia.
Researchers have worked out where the safest place in the world is when a global calamity strikes – but admit that even the best prepared nations aren’t entirely safe.
Lead author Dr Florian Ulrich Jehn, of the University of Hagen, told the Daily Mail: ‘Australia comes out best, but even Australia has likely many traded goods it would still need to rely on.’
Dr Jehn and his co–authors assessed hundreds of studies on disasters ranging from asteroid strikes and volcanic eruptions to nuclear Armageddon and biological warfare.
They found that countries had a better chance of withstanding these catastrophes if they are rich, democratic, remote, have a large industrial and agricultural base, and are located on an island.
Across these different factors, Australia comes out on top as the best place to be when disaster strikes.
Dr Jehn added: ‘Australia produces a lot of food, it is far away from conflict zones, it is surrounded by a vast ocean that buffers the temperature, still has mines, industry and manufacturing, lots of room to re–use, and also good governance and relatively low inequality.’
Despite what the Mad Max films have to say about Australia, experts have revealed that the nation is the most likely to survive a global apocalypse
Researchers assessed hundreds of studies on disasters ranging from asteroid strikes and volcanic eruptions to nuclear armageddon and biological warfare to find the most resilient nations in the face of a global calamity
While disasters come in all shapes and sizes, the researchers say there are only a few types of calamity that threaten a truly global disaster.
According to the new study, published in the journal Global Challenges, these disasters fall into three main categories.
First are ‘Abrupt Sunlight Reduction Scenarios’ (ASRS), in which events like volcanic eruptions, nuclear winter, or asteroid impacts suddenly block out the sun with dust.
Second are events known as ‘Global Catastrophic Infrastructure Loss’ (GCIL), which lead to mass disruptions to electricity, transport, and food production systems.
These could come from powerful geomagnetic storms caused by solar flares, high–altitude electromagnetic pulses from nuclear weapons, or massive cyberattacks.
Finally, the researchers identify Global Catastrophic Biological Risks (GCBRs), where natural or man–made biological hazards lead to mass casualties and disruption on a continental or global scale.
Dr Jehn says that how likely these risks are ‘varies widely by hazard’, while some risks are impossible to estimate since they depend on human actions.
However, we do have a very good idea of how likely some of these natural disasters are.
Being an island means that Australia can close itself off in the face of an apocalyptic pandemic, like the one which brings about the end of the world in the upcoming film Dog Stars (pictured)
Australia and a few other nations (pictured) are resistant to catastrophes that see the sun dimmed by dust from volcanoes or asteroid impacts and events that lead to global infrastructure loss
Dr Jehn says: ‘Volcanic eruptions of the size discussed have a one in six chance of happening this century, and estimates for geomagnetic storms in the relevant size are around one to 12 per cent per decade.’
Different countries have a range of factors that make them more or less resilient to each category of risk.
Likewise, a factor that can be a bonus in resisting one challenge can actually make a nation more vulnerable to another.
For example, being an island makes it easier for Australia to shut itself off from the world and isolate against pandemics.
But this isolation can also make a country more vulnerable to global supply chain disruptions or fuel shortages.
However, in the overall assessment, Australia still comes out on top as the most resilient against the widest range of threats.
Other resilient nations include New Zealand, Japan, Switzerland, and Argentina, but all of these are exposed to specific threats.
New Zealand, Japan, and Argentina all have long coastlines which are exposed to tsunamis caused by asteroid impacts.
Being a nuclear–armed nation in NATO makes the UK much more at risk from nuclear warfare
The UK is also especially vulnerable to geomagnetic storms caused by extreme space weather (illustrated)
Likewise, all of these nations besides Switzerland are dangerously close to one of the several volcanoes that could erupt in Southeast Asia and South America.
The UK, meanwhile, lacks many of the advantages shared by Australia and these other resistant nations.
Dr Jehn says: ‘Overall, the UK is likely not very resilient to many GCRs.
‘It is relatively far north, which means in abrupt sunlight reduction scenarios it will see a considerable drop in temperature.
‘Further, it is part of NATO and thus a likely target during nuclear war. The UK is also in a high–risk zone of geomagnetic storms.’
However, Dr Jehn does note that Britain has one of the world’s better ‘National Risk Registers’ and has ‘at least started to think’ about how to improve national resilience.
