“It’s part of the bargain between Beijing and Tehran: one can offer diplomatic protection and support while the other ensures the upkeep of providing oil,” Ghiselli says. Regardless, he says, even countries that have deals with Iran, including China, will likely oppose the long-term institutionalization of any toll mechanism or control over the strait.
“The perceived solution [for Iran] is permanent control of the strait—providing services, collecting fees, and, most importantly, securing not just the Persian Gulf but a valuable lever over the global economy,” Mohammad Eslami, a research fellow at the University of Tehran, and Zeynab Malakouti, a senior fellow at the Global Peace Institute, wrote in the Quincy Institute’s Responsible Statecraft last week. “After the war, Iran will likely try to re-enter the international economy by striking a quiet but crucial deal with nearly every country: secure passage through the Strait of Hormuz in exchange for recognition of the new Iranian framework and payment.”
