Football fans around the world will be tuning in on Sunday to watch the World Cup final, which will see Argentina take on Spain.
So, who will take home the trophy?
Ahead of the match, scientists from Northeastern University have analysed the data to predict the likely winner.
According to their calculations, Spain is the higher–performing team.
Brennan Klein, director of Northeastern University’s NetSI Sport research Group, said: ‘In terms of team play and tactical prowess, I see no reason that Spain shouldn’t win this game.’
However, Argentina has had an impressive run, coming back from the brink of defeat in multiple matches – largely driven by its star player, Lionel Messi.
The scientists’ analysis shows that 12 of the team’s 19 goals in the tournament so far have come after the 75th minute.
‘There’s just some kind of mystical inevitability about Argentina in the last 10 minutes,’ Dr Klein added.
Football fans around the world will be tuning in on Sunday to watch the World Cup final, which will see Argentina take on Spain . So, who will take home the trophy? Pictured: Lionel Messi
Argentina has had an impressive run, coming back from the brink of defeat in multiple matches – largely driven by its star player, Lionel Messi
For their analysis, the researchers looked back at both teams’ journeys through the tournament.
According to the results, the key for Spain has been the evolution of its ‘tika–taka’ style of play, which features short and quick passes in the midfield.
‘In recent years, the team has adopted a more “attacki–taka” style, characterized by an increase in progressive passes – long vertical passes that get the ball up the pitch quickly – and goal–scoring opportunities,’ Dr Klein explained.
This style means Spain leads the way with progressive passes, with an impressive average of 70 per game.
In contrast, Argentina relies more heavily on a single player – Messi.
At 39, Messi is one of the oldest players at the entire World Cup, yet is performing even better than he did in 2022, according to the analysis.
His expected goal rate (xG) has doubled from 0.26 per 90 minutes in 2022 to 0.52 per 90 minutes in 2026.
However, among the tournament’s best attackers, the researchers found that Messi walks the most.
According to the results, the key for Spain has been the evolution of its ‘tika–taka’ style of play, which features short and quick passes in the midfield
Sixty-four percent of his travelled distance has been at a walking pace, compared to Erling Haaland and Kylian Mbappe, who have spent about 45 per cent of their time walking.
‘Messi knows how to run. He is still a professional athlete,’ Dr Klein said.
‘This allows him in the 75th minute to destroy people on the dribble.’
As an example, Dr Klein highlights Messi’s performance against England, which saw him perform nine successful dribbles, as well as a critical cross in the 84th minute that led to a goal.
So, can Messi’s skills lead Argentina to victory?
Ashley Phillips, head coach for Northeastern’s women’s soccer team, says we can’t rule it out.
‘I would not be upset if Messi has some dark horse magic and wins this World Cup for Argentina, carrying them on his back,’ she said.
Before the tournament started, scientists from the University of Liverpool also predicted the winner, based on 1,000 simulations.
Spain have not trailed for a single minute of the tournament yet, while Argentina have been behind for 99 minutes – yet won all seven games anyway
They predicted that Spain is most likely to win, with its probability of glory at 26.1 per cent.
In contrast, they gave Argentina just a 12.4 per cent chance of winning.
‘Whilst our model agrees with the bookmakers in making Spain the favourites, Norway emerge as the standout dark horse, with a 3.6% chance of winning the trophy across our simulations,’ said Dr Benjamin Holmes.
