Geoff Bennett:
Much of the focus this midterm season has been on the fight for the U.S. House, with redistricting battles dominating the headlines. But this week also brought new developments in the race for the U.S. Senate.
Our congressional correspondent, Lisa Desjardins, has more.
Lisa Desjardins:
The Upper Chamber with direct power over Supreme Court and other nominations is increasingly in the 2026 conversation. A total of 35 Senate seats will be on the ballot, but just 11 are rated as remotely competitive by The Cook Political Report With Amy Walter.
Republicans in red are on defense in more of those seats than Democrats, but Democrats need a long shot sweep, a net gain of four seats to take control of the chamber.
For a closer look, we’re joined by Jessica Taylor, Senate and governors editor at The Cook Political Report.
Thank you for joining us, Jessica.
Jessica Taylor, The Cook Political Report:
Great to be here, Lisa.
Lisa Desjardins:
Let’s start with Maine. We had some news there this week when the Democrat candidate of choice, Governor Janet Mills, dropped out. It now looks like progressive upstart candidate Graham Platner, who’s an oyster farmer and a retired Marine, will be the one to face off with Susan Collins, Republican, in the fall.
He has brought a lot of passionate supporters to the table, but he also has controversy, past comments blaming sexual assault survivors, and also a tattoo that was also a past Nazi symbol. He’s apologized for those things. This is all a long buildup to a question. You had rated this race in Maine as a toss-up. Is it still a toss-up?
Jessica Taylor:
It is still a toss-up, and I think that’s because of the national environment.
Susan Collins’ seat, she’s the only Republican defending a seat that Harris carried. In fact, Republicans have not won Maine at the presidential level since 1988. So it’s been a while, and she’s managed to win this seat. She’s the only person — she’s Democrats’ white whale, really, that she’s been able to hold this seat even at times when Trump carried her seat in 2020.
But Platner is a risky choice. As you said, he brings a lot of energy. He’s — they talk about sort of this movement that he’s created there in Maine, and ousting the sitting governor is not easy. But it’s not just those comments, that Mills did not have the money to prosecute the case against him. Republicans will. They have already reserved millions of dollars in advertising.
So if this backfires against Democrats, that’s a real problem for them as they need to get these four seats.
Lisa Desjardins:
Let’s talk about that. As we have said, there’s four seats that need to switch net for Democrats. And if we look at the map here again, there’s roughly 11 seats that you say are in play. But, really, there’s only three toss-ups at this point.
How realistic is it for Democrats to try and take over the chamber, to net four? And where do they need to look?
Jessica Taylor:
Democrats have to pitch a perfect game. It is now within the realm of possibility, which I could not say at this time a year ago. And that’s because they have recruited successful candidates in states that I think could only put their seats into play.
Now, someone like the former Governor Roy Cooper in North Carolina, that’s a race we actually recently moved from toss-up to lean Democrat. So that gets them one pick up if that race — if he continues to have a lead in that contest. Ohio — former Ohio Senator Sherrod Brown, we have recently moved that race from lean Republican to toss-up. He lost last cycle, but this is a much better political environment for him.
And then they were able to get someone like former Congresswoman Mary Peltola in Alaska. We rate that race as lean Republican. So that race needs to move a little bit more onto the map for them to get to four. But, again, that means that they keep — that they are able to flip Maine.
And then Democrats, also, they’re playing defense in places some — a state like Georgia. We moved that one to lean Democrat as well recently, so that’s the state that they’re looking better in, but a state like Michigan, where they have a very messy primary that’s not going to be over until August.
So there’s minefields for Democrats on this map still as well.
Lisa Desjardins:
Let’s talk about Texas. I know it is the perennial question for Democrats, almost a siren call for them that they hope to win a Senate seat in Texas. But we have a vicious primary there. Does that help Democrats? Is this the year, I hesitate to ask, where Democrats have a chance in the Senate?
Jessica Taylor:
I feel like, for as long as I have been doing this, which is almost two decades, Democrats have been talking about turning Texas blue. But if Paxton defeats Cornyn in that primary…
Lisa Desjardins:
The sitting Senator, John Cornyn…
Jessica Taylor:
Right.
Lisa Desjardins:
… and the attorney general, Ken Paxton.
Jessica Taylor:
Yes, then that makes it that much easier, because we’re talking about Graham Platner’s baggage in Maine. Ken Paxton has a ton of baggage. He was impeached. There’s questions — his wife — he’s a very evangelical — has an evangelical base in the state. His wife left him for biblical reasons, which were interpreted as he had multiple affairs.
And so James Talarico has had a lot of money, the Democratic nominee, but he’s going to need it because Texas is such an expensive state.
Lisa Desjardins:
What’s a state that’s a little bit off the grid that you’re watching that people might not be talking about?
Jessica Taylor:
Iowa is my canary in the coal mine. There is a really interesting governor’s race there where, actually, Republicans’ polling even has the Democrat, Rob Sand, who’s the state auditor up there. And that is an open Senate seat as well. Joni Ernst is retiring.
Iowa is a state that’s been hit hard by tariffs, hit hard by soybeans that they haven’t been able to trade to China. So even though it’s a very Republican state, could there be enough things that could go right there? National Democrats would feel a lot better if it’s Josh Turek, who’s a four-time Paralympian, two-time gold medal winner.
He’s in a wheelchair from spina bifida that he contracted because of his father’s service in Vietnam and Agent Orange. He’s won — he’s a state representative who’s won in red areas. They feel much better about that matchup against Ashley Hinson, who’s the Republican congresswoman. So that’s a state that could be more on the map.
Lisa Desjardins:
She’s a strong campaigner, but I think Republicans too, they can’t take anything for granted, and that’s a place where I think they’re looking as well.
Jessica Taylor:
Exactly. It’s the national environment. This all comes down to Trump, it really does, and where his approval winnings are, where gas prices are, what’s happening with Iran in a couple of months as we get closer to voters going to the polls.
Lisa Desjardins:
Jessica Taylor, as we get closer, we will be hoping to talk to you more and more.
Jessica Taylor:
Excellent. Thank you, Lisa.
