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The United States’ chances of a magic carpet ride to a World Cup title are still slim, but the opening is much wider than it once was.
The U.S. Men’s National Team clinched a spot in the Round of 32 with its 2-0 win over Australia on Friday, but there was more reason to celebrate roughly eight hours later.
After Paraguay defeated Turkey, 1-0, the United States clinched first place in Group D — Turkey (zero points) cannot finish ahead of the U.S. (six), which already beat Paraguay and Australia (each with three) to win the head-to-head tiebreaker.
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Players of the United States celebrate their first goal, an own goal by Cameron Burgess of Australia, during the FIFA World Cup 2026 Group D match at Seattle Stadium in Seattle, Washington, on June 19, 2026. (Fran Santiago/Getty Images)
That means the United States will play a third-place group-finisher to begin the knockout stage on July 1 in San Francisco at 8 p.m. EDT.
Who that third-place team will be remains to be seen, as there are 20 different possibilities based on the rest of the group stage — the U.S. is slated to play the third-place finisher of either Group B, E, F, I or J, and nobody from those groups has clinched a knockout stage spot yet.
In any case, the United States should be favored against whoever they play, if all goes according to plan — unless, of course, France or Argentina fall in their groups.
The Athletic noted, however, that the likeliest outcome, at 58%, is Bosnia and Herzegovina, the 64th-ranked FIFA program in the world. Qatar, ranked 58th, follows at 18%, and 28th-ranked Ecuador is third at 5%.
Alex Freeman of the United States celebrates with teammates after scoring his team’s second goal during the FIFA World Cup 2026 Group D match between the U.S. and Australia at Seattle Stadium on June 19, 2026. (Jamie Squire/Getty Images)
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With a victory there, the United States would then be in line to potentially be favored again, as they would face the winner of Match 82. That match is the winner of Group G (New Zealand, Iran, Belgium or Egypt) vs. another third-place squad. Belgium is the highest-ranked team in that group at 10th in the world, while the U.S. is not far behind, at 13th.
Perhaps more importantly, the United States can get an additional week of rest for Christian Pulisic, who missed the Australia game while dealing with a calf injury he suffered in the World Cup opener against Paraguay. With nothing to lose, manager Mauricio Pochettino can, and likely will, limit play for Pulisic and other stars.
It’s still an uphill climb for the Stars and Stripes, but it’s no longer the highest peak.
United States’ Alex Freeman heads the ball for a goal past Australia goalkeeper Patrick Beach during the World Cup Group D soccer match in Seattle on June 19, 2026. (Maddy Grassy/AP Photo)
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The team already has six goals in group play, tying its group stage record with one more to play. The USMNT will face Turkey, which needs a win to stay alive, on Thursday in Los Angeles.
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