WASHINGTON — After weeks of speculation about whether President Donald Trump would deploy his vast campaign resources in Texas, MAGA Inc., the main pro-Trump super PAC, made a $10 million ad buy in the Texas Senate race.
The buy, which goes towards television streaming and digital advertising, is MAGA Inc.’s first expenditure of the general election, signalling the importance of the Texas Senate race to Trump’s political operation and the competitive nature of the contest.
Half of the $10 million tranche will go towards positive advertising boosting Republican Ken Paxton, an ally of the president, while the other half will go toward negative messaging against Democrat James Talarico. The ad spend was disclosed in an FEC filing Saturday afternoon.
MAGA Inc.’s ad buy comes on the heels of another major GOP player, Texas-based billionaire Elon Musk, getting involved in the Senate race. Musk’s America PAC has spent $1.4 million against Talarico thus far, on digital media and printing.
The investment from Trump’s super PAC comes as Republicans have publicly and privately urged the president to get involved in Texas, where polls have shown Talarico with a narrow lead, on average, and where the Democrat has vastly outraised Paxton and outspent the GOP over the summer. In the second quarter, Talarico raised over $30 million while Paxton pulled in over $9 million.
Several political analysts rate the race as a toss-up — an unusual sight in Texas, where Democrats have not won a statewide race in over three decades.
“High Tax Talarico wants to take money out of Texans’ pockets,” MAGA Inc. spokesperson Alex Pfeiffer wrote on X. “MAGA Inc. is going to ensure Texas knows about Talarico’s radical policies and elects Ken Paxton to the U.S. Senate.”
MAGA Inc. posted two 30-second spots both focused on tax policy. The ads highlight Paxton’s economic plan, centered on tax breaks for healthcare and housing expenses for individuals, and hit Talarico on property taxes and tax increases, highlighting his vote against a bill to require cities and counties to hold an election if they wish to raise property tax revenue by more than 3.5%.
“Talarico? Higher taxes,” the ad says. “Paxton? Lower taxes. A clear choice.”
Talarico’s economic plan includes raising taxes on corporations and billionaires and expanding tax credits for parents and lower-income workers.
A spokesperson for Talarico said the ads are lying about the Democrat’s record on taxes.
“Billionaire-backed dark money groups are lying about James Talarico because they’re scared of the people-powered movement we’re building to fix this broken, corrupt political system,” Talarico spokesperson JT Ennis said. “James was proud to vote for the largest property tax cut in Texas history and has consistently voted to cut taxes for working Texans.”
Despite making ad reservations in nearly every other competitive Senate race, Senate Leadership Fund, the super PAC aligned with Senate Majority Leader John Thune, has not put any money into Texas in the general election. Acknowledging the expensive nature of the state — Texas has 20 media markets and is a far pricier endeavor for campaigns and PACs to buy statewide airtime than places like Michigan and Iowa with fewer media markets — Thune encouraged the president to spend in Texas on Fox earlier this week.
“All of our allies out there, including the president and his team and their resources, need to be brought to bear on Texas, because it’s not one that we can lose if we’re going to hang on to a Republican majority,” Thune said. “We flat have to win there.”
And in an interview last weekend on Fox, Sen. John Kennedy, R-Louisiana, said that Senate Republicans “don’t have the money budgeted for Texas”, adding that, “I’m hoping that the president’s going to spend $100 or $200 million in Texas.”
With just over six weeks to go until early voting begins, more Texas spending from MAGA Inc., which had over $400 million in its coffers at last count, could be coming. Trump told reporters Friday that he had close to $1 billion under his control between various PACs and nonprofits, and that he expected to spend $400 million to $500 million on the midterms.
Ad rates vary, but Thune estimated that running a statewide ad costs $8 million per week in the Lone Star State on television alone.
Campaign cash also goes further than PAC money on broadcast television and radio, because candidates have access to a discounted rate from stations — meaning each dollar Talarico spends on those mediums buys more ad time than a GOP PAC. But MAGA Inc.’s ad buy is for connected television — such as streaming from a smart TV or a phone — and digital, where campaigns and PACs are equal players.
Thus far, Talarico’s campaign has spent $40.1 million on general election advertising, per ad tracking firm AdImpact. Paxton’s campaign has yet to spend significantly on television, logging about $264,000 in ad spending thus far, most of which has been on digital platforms.
Paxton beat Sen. John Cornyn, a historically stronger fundraiser and the pick of Senate Republicans, earlier this year in a primary runoff. He was boosted by Trump’s endorsement after the president weighed in a week before the runoff election date. And Trump has praised Paxton as the best attorney general in the country and for his loyalty over the years.
Talarico had outspent Paxton’s allies for much of the summer on the airwaves, introducing himself to voters via positive ads before going negative in a television ad criticizing Paxton over corruption allegations in late August.
Prior to the arrival of MAGA Inc., Paxton had received air support from Lone Star Liberty PAC, the main pro-Paxton PAC which has spent $18.9 million on the general election thus far, a super PAC that supports Republican Sen. Ted Cruz, a dark money group called Preserve Texas Inc. and an outside group funded by West Texas billionaire Tim Dunn.
As of today — before MAGA Inc.’s ads have begun running — Democrats have spent $41.7 million, nearly all from Talarico, to Republicans’ $24.3 million on the Senate race in Texas.
By November, ad spending on this race could set a Texas record. Cruz has estimated spending could reach $200 million. In his 2024 race against Democrat Colin Allred, which he won by 8.5 percentage points, AdImpact tracked $202 million in general election ad spending.
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