Texas’ grid operator raised eyebrows this week when it reported that peak demand on the grid could more than quadruple by 2032.
The 2032 peak load forecast of 367,790 megawatts far exceeds the highest recorded peak demand for the Texas grid — 85,508 megawatts in August 2023.
The forecast is preliminary, the Electric Reliability Council of Texas cautioned in the filing submitted to the Public Utility Commission of Texas. In a Friday PUCT meeting, officials agreed the forecast is likely higher than what demand will actually look like in the years ahead.
The grid operator plans to file a revised forecast in near future, officials said, as the agencies figure out how best to track the rapid buildout of energy-intensive projects like data centers and cryptocurrency mines.
“Texas is experiencing exceptional growth and development, which is reshaping how large load demand is identified, verified, and incorporated into long-term planning,” ERCOT President and CEO Pablo Vegas wrote in a statement Wednesday. “As a result of a changing landscape, we believe this forecast to be higher than expected future load growth.”
ERCOT, the state’s grid operator, filed its forecast with the Public Utility Commission of Texas on Wednesday as required by Senate Bill 6, approved by the Legislature last year. The preliminary data is based on ERCOT economic forecasts and data from utilities working with so-called large load customers — projects expected to exceed 75 megawatts of demand.
The forecast was presented Friday at a PUCT meeting and both agencies agreed they need to work together to develop a more accurate forecast before relying on it for long-term planning.
“ERCOT’s long term load forecast is the backbone of so much of what we do here and so much of our reliability planning and of our reliability assessment,” PUCT Commissioner Courtney K. Hjaltman said. “Every decision that we make as commissioners and everybody else makes really depends on the accuracy of the forecast.”
Regardless of where the final forecast lands, the data continues to point to massive growth in demand on the ERCOT grid as large data centers and other power-intensive projects are built across the state amid the artificial intelligence boom. Texas is expected to become the nation’s No. 1 market for data centers within the next two years.
ERCOT’s more conservative forecast for this summer would still break the grid’s 2023 record for peak demand.
Vegas told the House State Affairs Committee earlier this month that his agency is tracking requests for grid connections that could require approximately 410,000 megawatts of electricity, 87% of which are data centers.
Energy experts and ERCOT officials are quick to point out that requests to connect are not guarantees that construction will happen.
“I think it’s clear we need to engage in the process to find ways to refine this number into something that’s more usable,” PUCT Chair Thomas Gleeson said Friday.
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