The FIFA World Cup is well underway, with teams from around the globe gradually being whittled down before the final on 19 July.
Now, a supercomputer has revealed which nations are most likely to take home the trophy.
Built by scientists at the University of Liverpool, the supercomputer ran 1,000 simulations to predict every nation’s chance of winning the tournament.
According to the results, Spain is most likely to win, with its probability of glory at 26.1 per cent.
England is next on the list (17 per cent), ahead of France (13.5 per cent), Argentina (12.4 per cent), and Portugal (10.6 per cent).
‘Whilst our model agrees with the bookmakers in making Spain the favourites, Norway emerge as the standout dark horse, with a 3.6% chance of winning the trophy across our simulations,’ said Dr Benjamin Holmes.
What’s more, the supercomputer has also predicted who will claim the coveted Golden Boot.
It suggests that it will be Norway’s Erling Haaland or Spain’s Mikel Oyarzabal, who are both predicted to score 5.2 goals across the tournament.
Built by scientists at the University of Liverpool, the supercomputer ran 1,000 simulations to predict every nation’s chance of winning the tournament
According to the results, Spain is most likely to win, with its probability of glory at 26.1 per cent
To predict match results, the supercomputer uses the latest machine learning technologies.
It not only takes into account the quality of the individual players, but also how they are likely to interact with each other on the pitch.
And it already has an impressive track–record, having correctly predicted England’s second place in Euro 2024.
Dr Holmes said: ‘Since Euro 2024, we have expanded our simulation model with a host of new features.
‘The core idea remains the same: estimating the abilities of players and how they interact with each other and their opponents.
‘We have now added simulations of injuries, suspensions and who scores the goals.
‘We even model the playing conditions, capturing the weather and altitude that matter so much in this year’s expansive tournament across three host countries.’
According to the bot, England will win their Group, with the most likely subsequent opponents being DR Congo then Mexico.
When it comes to the Golden Boot – awarded to the player who scores the most goals in the competition – Erling Haaland is the favourite
According to the supercomputer, Erling Haaland has a 19 per cent probability of winning the Golden Boot
England will then face Brazil in the quarter–final and Portugal in the semi–final, before Spain in the final, according to the calculations.
Scotland, meanwhile, are predicted to come third in their Group, with an 11.8 per cent probability of reaching the final 16.
When it comes to the Golden Boot –awarded to the player who scores the most goals in the competition – Erling Haaland is the favourite, with a 19 per cent probability of winning.
However, several England stars are also in with a chance, according to the supercomputer.
Harry Kane is third on the list (12.2 per cent), while Jude Bellingham comes in 19th place (0.5 per cent).
The predictions are largely in line with previous calculations by experts from the University of Innsbruck, who also calculated the chances of winning for all 48 participating teams.
According to their calculations, Spain is the favourite, with a 14.5 per cent chance of winning the tournament.
However, England fans will be relieved to hear that England is close behind (12.4 per cent), just ahead of France (12.4 per cent) and Germany (11.2 per cent).
The predictions are largely in line with previous calculations by experts from the University of Innsbruck, who also calculated the chances of winning for all 48 participating teams
‘Compared to previous tournaments, this year’s title race is very tight,’ said co-lead author, Achim Zeileis.
In contrast, Jordan is the least likely to win the World Cup, according to the Innsbruck researchers – while Scotland has just a 0.2 per cent chance of winning.
‘The probability that the top favorite will actually win the tournament is usually no more than 20 per cent, which conversely also means that some other team wins with a probability of 80 per cent,’ explained co-author Andreas Groll of TU Dortmund University.
‘As a statistician, I’m therefore more interested in whether, on average, many of the teams we predict to go far will actually do so.’
