President Trump touts a sharp drop in illegal entries to the country, but a Cato Institute analysis shows legal immigration has fallen even more dramatically, with 132,000 fewer people being admitted per month through legal pathways. Liz Landers discussed what’s behind those numbers with the study’s author, David Bier. He’s the director of immigration studies at the Cato Institute.
Amna Nawaz:
A new analysis takes a closer look at how immigration is changing under President Trump and it paints a more complicated picture than the political rhetoric often suggests.
Liz Landers has more on how the Trump administration is reshaping the nation’s immigration policy.
Liz Landers:
Amna, the president often touts a sharp drop in illegal entries to the country, which have gone down by 50,000 entries per month since the end of 2024.
But a new analysis from the Cato Institute suggests that’s only part of the story. Legal immigration has fallen even more dramatically under the Trump administration, with 132,000 fewer people being admitted per month through legal pathways.
For more on what’s behind those numbers, I’m joined by that study’s author, David Bier. He’s the director of immigration studies at the Cato Institute.
David, thanks for coming back on “News Hour.”
David Bier:
Thanks for having me on.
Liz Landers:
This study shows that legal immigration has dropped sharply under this Trump administration. What specific policy changes are driving that gap?
David Bier:
Well, the biggest one by far is the suspension of immigrant visa processing for 75 countries around the world. These are — mainly for family members of U.S. citizens who are coming to reunite with their family members here.
Many are spouses and minor children of U.S. citizens. In addition to that, they have also suspended all entries from about 40 countries. So, 92 countries now face a de facto legal immigration ban by this administration, encompassing about half of all legal immigrants to the United States.
In addition to that, he’s banned almost all refugees, except for white South Africans. But even them — even that group are being admitted at just about 10 percent of the rate that was previously being admitted before under the Biden administration. So those are some of the main ones.
But every category — you look at H-1B visas for high-skilled workers, international students, also facing very severe restrictions through a variety of different policy means to reduce legal immigration to the United States.
Liz Landers:
The president has been eager to tout this major drop in border arrests since he took office, going from about 47,000 arrests at the end of Biden’s term to only about 8,600 last month.
Illegal immigration, as you know, it was already dropping under President Biden. So how much credit does President Trump get here?
David Bier:
Well, look, it’s a continuation of a trend. So that’s one of the main things that people need to understand. If you look at the peak and compare it to now, look, it’s been an over 90 percent reduction.
But almost 90 percent of that reduction happened under President Biden’s administration before President Trump took office. And so that is in stark contrast to these cuts to legal immigration, where illegal immigration was falling and legal immigration was rising under Biden.
The trends are now both down under President Trump.
Liz Landers:
You mentioned asylum and refugee status. A big part of this administration’s approach has been focused on restricting access to asylum. Your study shows that asylum seekers have essentially been completely blocked from entering at the U.S.-Mexico border and fell 99.9 percent in the course of a few months.
Who are these people that are getting turned away? And, also, are they finding other ways to legally enter the United States or are they just turned away completely?
David Bier:
Yes, they’re turned away completely. So these are people who are trying to come in, request asylum at legal ports of entry. They’re not trying to evade Border Patrol or cross the border illegally. This is something that every administration prior to this one had allowed people to do.
In fact, even in 2019, Secretary — DHS Secretary Nielsen had encouraged people who were applying for asylum to go to ports of entry to apply, rather than cross the border illegally. And what ended up happening is now we have completely eliminated that option for people to apply to enter legally.
The only way to get into the United States now is illegally if you’re one of these people seeking protection from persecution in their home country.
Liz Landers:
When you step back and look at the broader picture here, what do these trends tell us about the direction of U.S. immigration policy right now? Is this about reducing immigration as a whole?
David Bier:
Absolutely.
And you can even look at what the president himself has said. He said he wants to block immigration from the Third World. This is the type of rhetoric that we see from the far right online and in various policy forums. They want a reduction in both legal and illegal immigration. Many of the responses that I have received to my study are cheering it on and saying this is a great thing for the country.
But it’s really quite different from what President Trump sold his entire campaign around as being focused on illegal immigration and being in favor of legal immigration.
Liz Landers:
What are the potential economic impacts of this drop in legal immigration too in terms of the deficit, the birth rate, the social safety programs that we have in this country?
David Bier:
Well, our analysis shows that, over the last 30 years, immigrants have reduced the deficit by $14.5 trillion. Almost all of that came from legal immigration.
So, illegal immigrants did also help reduce the deficit by about $1.7 trillion, but most of it came from the legal immigrants. And if you look at the people who are specifically being targeted by these bans, they are not people who are likely to burden the country with deficits and debt. These are people who are actually going to contribute to the country through work and entrepreneurship.
Many of them are prime-age adults ready to enter the labor force who we need right now to revitalize our economy.
Liz Landers:
David Bier of the Cato Institute, thank you so much.
David Bier:
Thanks for having me.
