Russian President Vladimir Putin wants to avoid a direct military confrontation with Nato, despite increasingly hostile rhetoric aimed at the UK and other allies over their support for Ukraine, Western officials believe.
Some reports have suggested the visit by CIA chief John Radcliffe to Moscow this week was, in part, to warn Russia against a possible attack on a member of the Euro-Atlantic military alliance.
But the Western officials, who asked not to be named, said recent warnings from Moscow, including that UK forces could be targeted in future or that its weapons factories could be hit, were “nothing new”.
They were, they suggested, consistent with Russia’s military doctrine to apply pressure on the West.
The officials suggested that the hostile rhetoric was also a reflection of the growing pressure Putin is facing at home, with slow and costly gains in Ukraine along with the impact of Ukrainian long-range strikes deep inside Russia.
Putin and his officials have repeatedly dismissed warnings of Russian plans to attack Nato countries as hysteria. And US President Donald Trump appears to believe the Russian leader – saying this week that “he’s not going to attack a Nato territory”.
Not long before launching his full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, Putin had given public assurances that he had no intention of attacking Russia’s neighbour – despite overwhelming US intelligence that such preparations were in full swing.
However, the senior Western officials said on Friday that Russia would likely continue its “hybrid activity”, short of direct military action, using methods such as cyber-attacks, sabotage and even assassination attempts.
They said that was aimed at breaking Western resolve and support for Ukraine. One official highlighted the risks of that Russian strategy leading to a miscalculation -which could spark a military confrontation.
Russia is suspected of being behind a string of recent drone incidents in several Nato countries.
Earlier this month, a drone loaded with explosives reached a runway in Germany’s Leipzig airport – a key logistics hub for transferring military equipment to Ukraine. There is no proof to link the incident directly to Russia, which has denied any role.
It came amid a string of drone sightings over European airports and military bases that began last year and which are also suspected of being the work of Russia, though it again denies this.
Following the Leipzig incident, the head of France’s security services warned that “we must consider the possibility of direct, more violent hostile actions on our national soil”.
Still, one Western official said Nato allies should remain calm but not complacent. The UK government has already made clear that recent Russian threats will not deter its support for Ukraine.
The Western officials said the Ukraine war had “escalated” this year, with both Moscow and Kyiv stepping up their own long-range strike campaigns.
Putin, they said, had not changed his maximalist objectives, despite some signs of increasing frustrations back home.
They said petrol shortages in Russia were having an impact on support for the war. They believed there was increasing political pressure on the Russian leader, but that this did not pose a critical challenge to his power.
Russia is still making slow gains in the eastern Donbas region. But it’s also facing heavy casualties.
The officials said Russia was losing 6,000 more soldiers a month – either killed or wounded – than it can recruit.
That said, there is no indication yet that the Kremlin leader will resort to mass mobilisation.
