A seemingly simple ethical dilemma has gone viral on X, in which users are asked to choose between a blue or red button.
‘Everyone on earth takes a private vote by pressing a red or blue button,’ the post explains.
‘If more than 50% of people press the blue button, everyone survives.
‘If less than 50% of people press the blue button, only people who pressed the red button survive. Which button would you press?’
The dilemma has garnered huge interest, with thousands of social media users arguing in the replies over the best option.
Now, a mathematician has weighed in on the debate.
‘Most people think the choice is extremely obvious,’ said Steven Conway, an expert in game theory from Swinburne University of Technology.
‘However, not everyone agrees whether the obvious answer is blue or red.’
A seemingly simple ethical dilemma has gone viral on X, in which users are asked to choose between a blue or red button
If your first instinct is to pick red, you probably put your own interests first, according to the mathematician (stock image)
In an article for The Conversation, Mr Conway explains what’s going on in the question, which he compares to the classic trolley problem and prisoner’s dilemma.
‘From the point of view of philosophy and game theory, the question shows two different intuitions and views of decision–making with starkly contrasting results,’ he said.
‘And the very popularity of the question highlights the fraught existential stakes many of us feel in modern life.’
The case for red
If your first instinct is to pick red, you probably put your own interests first, according to the mathematician.
‘The case for red seems simple,’ he explained.
‘If more than 50% of people press the blue button, red pressers survive. If not, red pressers survive anyway. So basic self–interest leads to red.’
In game theory, this choice leads to the Nash equilibrium – a concept that describes a stable outcome in a game where no player can benefit by changing their strategy while the other players keep theirs unchanged.
One user tried to simplify the question, posting a picture in which they dubbed the blue button the ‘Ultimate Death Gamble’
‘This is the best choice for a participant looking to advance their own interests,’ Mr Conway added.
The case for blue
In MrBeast’s version of the poll, blue is the more popular option, with 56 per cent of respondents choosing this over red.
At first, blue might seem like a silly choice.
‘Why would anyone stake their own life on the collective decisions of others?’ Mr Conway asked.
‘This is where, as with any good thought experiment, the real value of the provocation shows itself, as we ponder the “why” behind the choice.’
If you opt for blue, you likely think about others before yourself, according to the mathematician.
It might be that you worry your friends will pick blue and you want them to survive, or you worry that you’d feel responsible for the potential deaths of others.
If you opt for blue, you likely think about others before yourself, according to the mathematician
Alternatively, you might be concerned that people will judge you if you pick red.
In game theory, this is known as the Pareto–optimal outcome, where the least potential damage is done by your choices.
‘The specific formulation of the thought experiment, condensed down into a simple binary choice, is also perfect for social media, where hot takes dominate and extremity is rewarded by the algorithm: yes or no, right or wrong, gold–and–white dress or blue–and–black,’ Mr Conway added.
‘It’s also where similar questions are often asked of influencers, who might sacrifice their own moral viewpoints in pursuit of attention and visibility.
‘It’s a perfect quick moral apocalypse for a doomscrolling public.’
