Overshooting the critical 1.5°C warming limit is now inevitable, the UN has warned in a new report.
Titled ‘Limiting Overshooting’, the report reveals that in the best–case scenario, global temperature rise will now hit 1.8°C.
However, in the worst–case scenario, we could see temperatures soar by as much as 2°C in the next few years.
Worryingly, experts warn that the impacts are going to be ‘devastating’.
‘There are no good outcomes if we remain above 1.5°C,’ said Inger Andersen, Executive Director of UNEP.
‘Across the globe, extreme heatwaves are already proving that climate impacts will strike faster, hit harder, and last longer – costing more lives and causing deeper disruption.
‘Now is the time we must double down on climate action. We can – and must – get on the right path.
‘By cutting greenhouse gas emissions, strengthening resilience and adaptation, and ensuring exceedance of 1.5°C is as small and short as possible.’
Overshooting the critical 1.5°C warming limit is now inevitable, the UN has warned in a new report. Titled ‘Limiting Overshooting’, the report reveals that in the best–case scenario, global temperature rise will now hit 1.8°C
The 1.5°C global warming limit was introduced as part of the Paris Agreement on 12 December 2015.
It meant that nations agreed to pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels.
However, the new report warns that this warming limit is now out the window, with warming of at least 1.8°C now expected.
This temperature rise could have ‘devastating consequences’, ranging from intensified extreme weather to sea level rise.
‘The likelihood of crossing irreversible tipping points increases with the magnitude and duration of higher temperatures,’ the report warns.
‘These include the destabilization of major ice sheets, degradation of the Amazon rainforest and disruption of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (the system of currents that moves warm surface water north and cold deep water south, playing a key role in regulating the climate).
‘Some impacts may emerge abruptly, while others will accumulate over time.’
Many consequences are already being felt around the world, according to UN Secretary-General Antőnio Guterres.
Based on the findings, the researchers are calling for immediate action to cut greenhouse gas emissions
He said: ‘This summer’s scorching heat, raging wildfires and deadly floods are a warning of what lies ahead.
‘We must make the overshoot above 1.5 degrees as small and short as possible.’
Based on the findings, the researchers are calling for immediate action to cut greenhouse gas emissions.
However, they admit that even if warming is limited to 1.5°C, ‘irreversible losses and permanently changed conditions are certain’.
The report explains: ‘Many communities may be forced to relocate or change livelihoods, while societies will face the challenge of re-adjustment.
‘This raises issues of justice, power, and political legitimacy, which will require new, inclusive governance arrangements to resolve difficult issues.
‘This report is a reminder that an overshoot, peak and decline pathway is a next generation climate frontier, but one which cannot be left unattended to for the next generation to tackle.
‘Immediate action is required for such a pathway to remain possible.’
The news comes shortly after the summer of 2026 was declared the hottest in Britain since records began.
Met Office forecasters said that the average temperature for June, July and August across day and night was provisionally 16.5C (61.7F), higher than the record set last year of 16.1C (61F) and the previous 2018 high of 15.7C (60.3F).
The summer was also one of the sunniest on record – evidenced by the acres of parched grassland in parks and fields across the country.
It means the infamous 1976 summer and its heatwave is now just the seventh most intense summer in recent memory, with the top five hottest seasons all occurring since 2003.
Dr Amy Doherty, who leads the National Climate Information Centre at the Met Office said: ‘The conditions we’ve seen this summer have broken UK climate records once again.
‘Particularly notable is how much we’ve exceeded the previous summer mean temperature record, set just last year.’
