The next named storm to threaten the US is expected to form this week in the Atlantic, and the first weather models show it has a chance of striking the East Coast.
Long-range forecasts for the Atlantic storm, which would be named Dolly, show multiple paths that take the potential tropical cyclone directly into South Carolina. Another predicted path would take it into the Gulf of America and threaten Florida.
Currently called Invest 92, the storm system has an 80 percent chance of gathering strength and organizing into a dangerous cyclone within the next 48 hours.
It is currently heading straight for the Caribbean, barreling toward Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic, Haiti and Cuba by this weekend.
Expanded spaghetti models, which track all possible paths of tropical storms and hurricanes, show Dolly turning north after hitting the Caribbean and spinning toward the East Coast at some point next week.
However, the Atlantic storm’s exact path will depend on several factors, including how strong it becomes and how it is affected by wind patterns south of Florida.
The National Hurricane Center (NHC) has already warned that ‘a tropical depression will likely form while the system moves westward to west-northwestward across the central tropical Atlantic.’
A tropical depression is the first stage of a tropical cyclone, where a low-pressure area forms with thunderstorms and relatively low winds – but it could quickly turn into Tropical Storm Dolly once those winds grow to a sustained speed of 39mph.
Radar images show a tropical storm forming in the Atlantic Ocean currently called Invest 92
Long-range forecasts predict that Invest 92 may turn and make landfall in the Carolinas next week
While the Atlantic hurricane season has been relatively quiet to this point, two named storms have already made landfall in the US this year.
Tropical Storm Arthur made landfall in Texas on June 17, and Tropical Storm Bertha struck multiple states along the Gulf Coast in mid-July. A third storm in the central Atlantic was named Cristobal on Wednesday and is not expected to move toward land.
If Dolly were to form and reach the US, it would mark the third direct hit this hurricane season already.
Hurricane experts for AccuWeather predicted there may be three to five direct hits on the US throughout the entire season, which does not end until November 30.
AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva said in March: ‘There is no reason to let your guard down this year. It only takes one storm to cause major damage, disruption and heartache.’
‘Review your insurance coverage, safety plans, and local evacuation routes now. Make sure your emergency supplies are stocked up.’
Currently, the long-range forecasts for the storm show two paths that would impact the Carolinas, one barreling directly into South Carolina and the other sweeping along the East Coast, making landfall in both South and North Carolina next week.
A third potential track showed the storm moving south of the Caribbean islands and spiraling directly into the Gulf, taking a clear route towards the Florida Panhandle, Alabama, Mississippi and Louisiana.
The National Hurricane Center has said there is an 80 percent chance Invest 92 becomes a tropical cyclone within the next two days
The last hurricane to make landfall in South Carolina was Hurricane Ian in 2022, causing flooding, power outages and property damage (Pictured)
It is too early to tell how strong Invest 92 will become once it forms into a tropical cyclone.
If the warm waters of the Caribbean continue to fuel the storm and turn it into a giant, organized thunderstorm, it could reach hurricane strength once its winds exceed 75mph.
The last time a hurricane made landfall in South Carolina was Hurricane Ian in 2022. That Atlantic storm barreled up the East Coast, causing significant damage in Florida and more than 150 deaths.
Long-range forecasters recently downgraded their predictions for the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season due to the global weather phenomenon known as El Niño, which historically causes fewer major storms to form in the Atlantic.
El Niño is a natural climate pattern in which the central and eastern Pacific Ocean surface temperature becomes significantly warmer than average, flipping weather patterns worldwide.
As of July 7, AccuWeather changed its prediction to between eight and 14 named storms in the Atlantic this year, down from their prediction of 11 to 16 in March.
However, AccuWeather still predicted that four to seven of these storms will reach hurricane strength, and that three to five named storms will make landfall in the US.
AccuWeather’s Lead Long Range Forecaster Paul Pastelok told the Daily Mail in June: ‘It only takes one storm, and then boom! We’re not saying that El Niño is going to weaken and dampen the Atlantic Basin season completely.’
‘There’s still a lot of warm water, a lot of potential there. So, [I] just wanted to make sure [if] people were saying, “Oh, we don’t have to worry about anything this year.” That’s not true. It only takes one storm.’
