Odds of a super El Niño are climbing and are expected to continue increasing through the end of the year. The Climate Prediction Center now says there is a 97% chance the climate pattern will persist.
A very strong El Niño is expected to develop by this fall, just after the climatological peak of the Atlantic hurricane season. In its latest update released Thursday, NOAA said there is an 81% chance that El Niño will reach very strong strength by October, up from a 63% chance in its June outlook.
El Niño is one of three phases of a climate cycle called the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). It describes natural temperature changes in the central Pacific Ocean that alter atmospheric circulation and can greatly influence global weather.
This graphic shows the difference in water temperature in the Pacific Ocean compared to the average temperature, signaling the presence of El Niño
It’s typically associated with fewer hurricanes in the Atlantic.
El Niño describes warmer than average water across the equatorial Pacific, while La Niña describes colder than average water conditions, and ENSO neutral refers to a state where temperatures are close to average.
WHAT’S THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN A TROPICAL DEPRESSION, TROPICAL STORM AND HURRICANE?
During El Niño, above-average water temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean alter the position and strength of the subtropical jet stream. It’s typically more robust and extends well into the Caribbean and Atlantic Ocean. Think of the subtropical jet stream as a belt of very fast winds high in the atmosphere.
It’s these strong winds that hinder tropical development in the Atlantic during an El Niño. Hurricanes like very calm conditions.
El Niño impact on hurricane season.
(FOX Weather / FOX Weather)
Meanwhile, in the Pacific, the script is completely flipped.
“Because El Niño concentrates its deepest pool of warm water and lowest wind shear across the central and eastern Pacific, it transforms that basin into a hyper-fueled engine for major hurricanes and monster typhoons,” the FOX Forecast Center said.
Colorado State University (CSU) has again lowered its Atlantic hurricane season forecast Wednesday, citing the high potential for a very strong El Niño during the peak of the season. FOX Weather Hurricane Specialist Bryan Norcross offers exclusive analysis on the revised hurricane season forecast as a Super El Niño brews:
This comes as Colorado State University (CSU) again lowered its Atlantic hurricane season forecast Wednesday, citing the high potential for a very strong El Niño even during the peak of the season.
CSU states a moderate El Niño is already present and is very likely to reach a strong El Niño.
In it’s latest update NOAA said there is a 97% chance that El Niño will persist through next spring.
Check back for updates on this developing story.
