The FOX Forecast Center is closely watching the eastern Gulf as multiple forecast models begin to indicate that a broad area of storms could attempt to spin up over the warm Gulf waters later this weekend.
The FOX Forecast Center is closely monitoring the eastern Gulf as multiple forecast models begin to indicate the potential for tropical development over the warm Gulf waters later this weekend. While it is too early to pinpoint the exact timing, strength or potential impacts, there is still a chance a tropical system could develop.
LATEST FROM FOX WEATHER HURRICANE SPECIALIST BRYAN NORCROSS
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The exclusive FOX Weather Tropical Threat shows only a low chance of development through next week, but those along the eastern Gulf Coast, including Florida, should keep an eye on the forecast in the coming days.
DANGEROUS FLOOD THREAT TARGETS MILLIONS ACROSS TEXAS, INCLUDING HILL COUNTRY, AND THE GULF COAST
A system is considered to be “tropical” when well-organized thunderstorms rotate around a distinct center over warm water.
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Historically, most of the tropical systems that develop in July are so-called “homegrown threats” — systems that develop close to the American coastline.
Currently, hostile winds, plumes of Saharan dust and average water temperatures are creating hostile conditions for tropical development in the open Atlantic, in what has been a quiet start to the season.
Tropical Storm Arthur, which formed along the Texas coast on June 17, remains the year’s only named storm thus far.
FREEPORT, TEXAS – JUNE 17: Floodwater surrounds a neighborhood after Tropical Storm Arthur made landfall on June 17, 2026 in Freeport, Texas. A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for portions of the northwestern Gulf Coast, stretching from the mid-to-upper Texas coast into Louisiana, as Tropical Storm Arthur brought heavy downpour and flooding. Tropical Storm Arthur becomes the first named storm of the Atlantic hurricane season.
(Photo by Brandon Bell/Getty Images / Getty Images)
However, water temperatures remain above average in the Gulf and off the Southeast coast, opening the door to potential development.
According to the FOX Forecast Center, a weakening cold front could leave behind an area of stormy weather over the Gulf sometime this weekend, creating conditions that may allow a broad area of low pressure to spin up over the warm Gulf waters.
(FOX Weather)
FOX Weather Meteorologist Britta Merwin said this type of tropical development is “very common for this time of year.”
“The trend is slightly increasing, not enough to give us big red flags, but the fuel source is there,” Merwin said, referring to the latest forecast models and warm Gulf waters.
“Outside of keeping an eye on the forecast updates over the next few days, there is no immediate cause for concern,” the FOX Forecast Center said.
The next named storm of the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season would be “Bertha.”
FOX Weather is your Hurricane HQ. Check back for updates on this developing story.
