FOX Weather Hurricane Specialist Bryan Norcross joins FOX Weather from the annual National Tropical Weather Conference in South Padre Island, Texas as forecasters gear up for the 2026 hurricane season. Now 53 days out, CSU calls for slightly below-average activity. Norcross breaks down the key early insights:
La Niña is dead, but the Pacific Ocean will only be neutral for a brief time as NOAA also released an El Niño Watch, noting the climate pattern could take over in early summer and last through the end of the year.
After an eventful La Niña winter full of powerful storms, NOAA issued its final La Niña advisory on Thursday, signaling the Pacific Ocean’s shift into a neutral pattern, meaning ocean temperatures in the Central and East-Central equatorial Pacific are near average.
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A little pup is blocked from the yard by nearly a foot of snow in North Patchogue, NY, Feb. 23, 2026.
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Vicious Feb. 2026 blizzard hits Richmond, RI
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Snow pummels South Lake Tahoe, California Tuesday, Feb. 17, 2026.
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BOSTON, MA – January 29: Commuters board an MBTA bus on January 29, 2026, climbing over snow piled along the curb after storms earlier in the week dumped heavy snowfall across the region.
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A resident clears snow surrounding a vehicle in Somerville, Massachusetts, US, on Monday, Jan. 26, 2026.
(Mel Musto/Bloomberg)
Neutral conditions are expected to be somewhat short-lived, as there is a 61% chance the Pacific transitions into El Niño conditions by June.
WHAT ARE EL NINO AND LA NINA CLIMATE PATTERNS?
La Niña, neutral and El Niño are the three climatological phases of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle that describe natural changes in Pacific Ocean temperatures and atmospheric circulation that can greatly influence global weather.
The Pacific came into a La Niña pattern in September, and it persisted until neutral conditions started creeping in at the beginning of the year.
Now that La Niña is officially in the past, NOAA is looking at what could be next as we near hurricane season.
(FOX Weather)
NOAA said El Niño conditions are likely, but how strong it is depends on several possibilities.
There’s a 1-in-4 chance a “very strong” El Niño takes shape by next winter.
(FOX Weather)
When it comes to hurricane season, El Niño typically means less activity in the Atlantic Basin and more tropical activity in the central and Eastern Pacific.
The FOX Forecast Center said El Niño typically brings increased wind shear that can help suppress tropical development in the Atlantic.
Colorado State University released its early hurricane season forecast on Thursday, predicting a slightly below-average season for activity in the Atlantic.
