The FOX Weather ROWI (Risk Of Weather Impact) shows dry, partly cloudy conditions for the 2026 Kentucky Derby. Temperatures will be in the upper 50s, too, making for great conditions all around for the big race.
LOUISVILLE, Kentucky – Year after year, the eyes of the world turn to Louisville, Kentucky, for the annual running of the world’s most famous horse race: The Kentucky Derby.
Known as “The Most Exciting Two Minutes in Sports,” the Kentucky Derby isn’t just about the race—it’s a full-on spectacle at Churchill Downs – and weather plays a major role year after year.
For racers, bettors, and spectators alike, luck is already on their side this year before a single horse even breaks from the gate.
The FOX Weather Risk Of Weather Impact (ROWI) is a LOW – partly cloudy with 10 mph wind and temperatures hovering in the high 50s.
The 151st Kentucky Derby, held on May 3, 2025, unfolded over a muddy Churchill Downs after heavy rain saturated the track. This year is expected to tell a different story, with minimal weather impact setting the stage for a cleaner race.
(Alex Slitz/Getty Image)
Weather plays a major role in horse racing, for both the jockey and the horse, and this year all parties toeing the line are in luck. Ideal temperatures for horse racing are between 50 and 75 degrees, so gamblers and racers alike won’t have weather to blame when their pony doesn’t podium.
Coldest Kentucky Derby days over the past 151 years.
According to the FOX Forecast Center, the average high in Louisville this time of year is 74 degrees – and this year could be one of the chilliest Derby’s in years.
The high for Derby Day in Louisville is forecast to be around 60 degrees.
The hottest Kentucky Derby day was a 94 degree scorcher in 1959 for the 85th running. The winner was Tomy Lee, second was Sword dancer and third was First Landing.
(Getty Images)
Based on data compiled by NWS Louisville, if the high stays in the 50s, it’ll be the coolest Kentucky Derby day since 1989.
If the high temperature reaches 60 degrees, then it’ll be the coolest in 29 years.
The coldest Kentucky Derby Day came in 1957, when temperatures reached just 47 degrees. Iron Liege, ridden by Willie Hartack—neither horse nor jockey appear to mind the chill from the winner’s circle of the coldest Derby on record.
(Getty Images)
Given the forecast, the 152nd running of the Kentucky Derby, scheduled for 6:57 p.m. ET on May 2, will be one of the top 15 coldest race days since 1875.
