Retail spending continues to be a strength in U.S. commerce overall, even if that resilience is concentrated among consumers in the top third of the income and wealth distribution. Indexes tracked by Brian LeBlanc, an economist at PNC Bank, show lower-income households’ underlying savings are also holding up, even though those savings have much less purchasing power than they did before the Covid-19 pandemic.
Sucharita Kodali, a vice president at Forrester who specializes in e-commerce and retail, has said retail sales are robust despite inflation because consumers are forced to purchase essential goods for a higher price, not because lower- and middle-income households are splurging on discretionary items.
Still, with the job market in relatively good shape, analysts expect the Federal Reserve to focus more sharply on the country’s inflation problem. Kevin M. Warsh, the Fed’s new chairman, has vowed to deliver price stability. But he may nevertheless feel the same cross-pressures his predecessor did: a growing desire to rein in high inflation, tempered by a concern that tightening the cost of borrowing in the economy could hurt jobs and growth.
Bill Adams, chief U.S. economist at Fifth Third Commercial Bank, says the biggest inflationary threats are from the A.I. boom, which is creating supply bottlenecks for semiconductors, electronics and related products. Yet what retail analysts call “price insensitivity” among affluent consumers who keep spending even as prices spike — for sports tickets, meals or personal services — are playing a role, too.
Atlanta, Boston, Dallas, Houston, Kansas City, Los Angeles, Miami, New York, New Jersey, Philadelphia, Seattle and the California Bay Area are all hosts for this summer’s World Cup tournament. And leisure and hospitality businesses in these areas are reporting an uptick in customers, as regional and international visitors flood in with reverie.
