With the Atlantic hurricane season officially arriving on Monday, forecasters are already warning of a potentially major storm striking the Gulf Coast in just days.
A new storm model from the Global Forecast System (GFS) has warned that an early-season tropical cyclone could rip across most of Florida during the first week of June, bringing heavy rain and dangerous winds to millions.
GFS is the primary US global weather model run by NOAA’s National Centers for Environmental Prediction. It is a government-operated supercomputer model that produces forecasts up to 16 days in advance and is updated four times a day.
A group called Florida Storm Chasers revealed the potentially hazardous storm track, which depicted one possible scenario where a major low-pressure system moves up the Gulf of America during the first week of June.
The potential storm was seen developing into a swirling tropical cyclone before striking southern Florida on or around June 5 and quickly barreling over land on Saturday, June 6 before heading out into the Atlantic.
Florida Storm Chasers revealed that at least one other GFS model has predicted a potential tropical storm or hurricane, which would be named Arthur, rolling up the Florida coast.
This other prediction posted on May 27 showed the storm striking the top of Florida on June 5 before spinning west and moving up the Gulf Coast-side of the Sunshine State and heading towards Louisiana, Alabama and Mississippi.
While meteorologists have cautioned that the GFS models have been historically biased when it comes to overestimating tropical storms, forecasters have confirmed that an early ‘tropical threat’ does appear to be emerging in the Gulf.
Early prediction models have shown a potential tropical cyclone striking Florida in the first week of hurricane season
Meteorologists have confirmed that a tropical threat is emerging in the Gulf of America but caution that it is still too early to tell if a storm will form
AccuWeather meteorologists have been tracking the early signs of a tropical low-pressure area, the seed for a tropical storm, and expect this system to form in the central Gulf of America or the waters near Florida next week.
Warm ocean waters in the Gulf and near Florida’s coastline provide the energy needed for these types of storms to form an organized central core of powerful thunderstorms and strike early in the hurricane season.
Forecasters have also been watching for more general tropical moisture and activity building in the region, revealing that winds moving this moisture north from the Caribbean could help with drought in Florida, but also increase the risk of a major storm.
AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva said in a statement: ‘While we always monitor the tropics for potential threats, we’ll be keeping a close eye on the central and eastern Gulf and the southwestern Atlantic.’
‘Climatologically, this region can experience early-season tropical development,’ he added.
If a tropical system does form, it would likely bring ‘several inches of rain’ and also trigger localized flooding, according to forecasters.
However, weather experts have cautioned that it is still too early to accurately predict if a major tropical storm or named hurricane will form, as long-range forecast models tend to be less accurate the further out they try to predict.
Gulf Coast News Chief Meteorologist Allyson Rae explained that GFS models have already started to show that a tropical cyclone is unlikely to hit Florida late next week, adding that the GFS model ‘has a known bias to incorrectly spin up tropical systems in the longer range.’
A satellite image of Hurricane Erin in 2025. AccuWeather has predicted that five named storms could make landfall in the US this year
The latest predictions from both AccuWeather and the NOAA have forecast a below-average hurricane season, with fewer named storms and only two to four major hurricanes likely to form in the Atlantic.
Despite the uncertain forecast for the start of hurricane season, weather experts still warned Americans to be prepared for a potential life-threatening storm throughout the summer.
‘There is no reason to let your guard down this year. It only takes one storm to cause major damage, disruption and heartache,’ DaSilva said. ‘Review your insurance coverage, safety plans, and local evacuation routes now. Make sure your emergency supplies are stocked up.’
NOAA said there is a 55 percent chance the Atlantic hurricane season will be below average this year, though forecasters also warned there remains a 10 percent chance activity could rise above normal.
Officials have urged residents at the highest risk of being in the path of hurricanes to begin stocking up on emergency supplies, including gas, food, water and other essentials, before long lines form during an actual emergency.
Forecasters project there will be as many as 16 named storms and seven hurricanes in the Atlantic Ocean in 2026
So-called ‘homegrown development’ storms may give US residents less than two days to prepare for a hurricane
According to the National Hurricane Center, 125 people throughout the Atlantic basin died during the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season, with most of the fatalities occurring in the Caribbean during Hurricane Melissa.
Over $500 million in damage was suffered in the US due to the four direct hits the country sustained last year. Most of the damage took place in North Carolina during Tropical Storm Chantal.
While the overall number of potential US strikes is predicted to be lower this year, AccuWeather estimated that the threat of a direct US impact will still be ‘elevated.’
