Hurricane Fausto’s course is now expected to head straight for Hawaii in a rare weather event that may score a direct hit on the islands.
New spaghetti models of the Category 2 hurricane project that the storm will strike Hawaii’s Maui, Molokaʻi, Lānaʻi and Oʻahu by next week.
Fausto has been building in strength in the eastern Pacific Ocean, with forecasters on Friday now predicting it will pass just north of Hawaii’s Big Island as a tropical storm on Tuesday.
The islands still in the storm’s path house the vast majority of Hawaii’s local population and tourist traffic, with over one million people spread out across the state, particularly in Honolulu, Waikiki, Kahului and Kihei.
The storm currently has sustained winds of more than 100 mph after reaching hurricane status on July 20, and storm tracks show Fausto holding a nearly straight line directly toward the state.
The National Hurricane Center warned in a statement: ‘Fausto is forecast to approach the Hawaiian Islands during the early to the middle portion of next week. The risk of some impacts from wind and rainfall is increasing.’
However, meteorologists said it is still too early to know exactly how strong the storm will be and which islands could be in danger when Fausto arrives.
Hawaii is currently in the peak of its summer travel season, with roughly 250,000 vacationers visiting beaches and other tourist attractions on any given day from June to mid-August.
Hurricane Fausto (Pictured) is currently a Category 2 storm headed directly for Hawaii
Forecast models project that Hurricane Fausto will impact the Hawaiian Islands after passing just to the north of the Big Island on Tuesday, July 28
The last Pacific cyclone to directly strike Hawaii was Hurricane Olivia in September 2018, which also reached the islands after weakening to a tropical storm.
Forecasters with AccuWeather predicted that Fausto may continue to strengthen into the weekend before eventually losing power as it heads deeper into the cooler waters of the Central Pacific.
AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva also agreed with the National Hurricane Center and the two to three spaghetti model tracks, which showed Fausto eventually being a near-miss for the Hawaiian Islands.
However, DaSilva warned that even a close pass to the north would likely bring rough surf and dangerous rip currents to packed beaches throughout Maui, Molokaʻi, Lānaʻi and Oʻahu, with beaches facing to the east and north seeing the greatest hazards.
A rip current is a strong, narrow channel of water that flows quickly away from the shore, often pulling swimmers out to sea.
They can be deadly even for strong swimmers as they sweep people into deeper water, exhausting them as they try to fight against the current instead of swimming parallel to the shore to escape.
DaSilva said in a statement: ‘There can also be an uptick in gusty winds and locally drenching showers, depending on the exact track of the storm.’
Fausto is already the sixth named storm to form in the Pacific this summer, with the National Weather Service already predicting another to develop next week.
Pictured: Beachgoers enjoy the summer weather on a beach in Maui (Stock Image)
Hurricane Fausto had sustained winds of more than 100mph as of Friday morning
Hurricane Fausto is projected to reach Hawaii at tropical storm strength by next week. A direct hit would be the first since 2018
Meteorologists have been warning that the 2026 Pacific hurricane season could be particularly active due to the emergence of a ‘super’ El Nino in June.
El Niño is a natural climate pattern in which the central and eastern Pacific surface temperature becomes significantly warmer than average, flipping weather patterns worldwide.
Due to the significantly warmer water in the pacific fueling tropical cyclone activity, forecasters with AccuWeather predicted there would be 17 to 22 named storms across the Pacific this year.
Between nine and 13 of those are projected to be hurricanes, and as many as eight are predicted to reach ‘major hurricane’ status at Category 3 or greater.
‘Hawaii has gone a long time without a direct hurricane landfall, but that should not lead to complacency,’ DaSilva explained in May.
‘Some islands were hit hard by flash flooding in March. People across Hawaii should prepare for an increased risk of tropical impacts this year.’
AccuWeather also warned that their Pacific forecast included one to two direct hits on the state.
El Niño is also feared to result in an uptick of major storms that could threaten California, potentially even reaching major cities like Los Angeles this summer.
‘That extra energy stored in the ocean can help storms strengthen faster, last longer and in some cases move farther north toward places like Baja California and far Southern California,’ DaSilva said.
