Fossil fuel use must halve by 2035 if we’re to avoid catastrophic climate damage, a new report has warned.
The report, by Climate Analytics, looked at the measures that need to be taken to keep global warming below 1.5°C by the end of the century.
This threshold is the critical global climate limit established by the Paris Agreement to avoid the most devastating impacts of climate change.
According to the analysis, to hit this goal we must halve fossil fuel use by 2035.
What’s more, experts say the use of fossil fuels must be phased out entirely by 2070 at the very latest.
‘Fossil fuels are still pouring oil on the climate fire,’ said Dr Neil Grant, Senior Expert, Mitigation Pathways at Climate Analytics.
‘Our analysis is clear: we need to cut fossil fuel use sharply this decade, halve it by 2035, and drive it down to real zero by 2070.’
The report comes shortly after experts confirmed that greenhouse gas emissions have hit an all–time high, with 56.8 billion tonnes of CO2 released in 2024.
Fossil fuel use must halve by 2035 if we’re to avoid catastrophic climate damage, a new report has warned
For their analysis, the researchers modelled exactly what needs to be done to keep global warming below 1.5°C by 2100.
While fossil fuel production and use peaked last year, their model shows that it must fall by 20 per cent by 2030, by 50 per cent by 2035, and by 100 per cent by 2070.
The researchers explained: ‘Coal, gas and oil are effectively phased out globally by 2050, 2060 and 2070 respectively.
‘A 20% cut in fossil fuels by 2030 would require production and use to fall at 4–5% per year from now on.’
For this reduction to be feasible, the team says we need to avoid all new oil and gas fields.
Bill Hare, CEO at Climate Analytics, said: ‘New oil and gas fields are incompatible with any credible transition away from fossil fuels.
‘Gas use needs to be reduced rapidly in the short term to half of 2023 levels by 2035.
‘And yet governments and fossil fuel companies continue to pour billions into expanding production, particularly of fossil gas.
While fossil fuel production and use peaked last year, their model shows that it must fall by 20 per cent by 2030, 50 per cent by 2035, and by 100 per cent by 2070
‘This is a fast–track pathway to climate chaos.’
So, how can this be achieved? According to the researchers, electification will be the ‘central enabler of the transition’.
By 2050, they say electricity should provide almost two–thirds of global energy demand – replacing fossil fuels across power, transport, buildings, and industry.
And while you might think that carbon capture and storage would be a viable solution, the experts say that its use should be minimised.
Mr Hare explained: ‘If we slow the phase–out, we are left with two dangerous options: rely even more heavily on carbon removal and carbon capture technologies that are limited and uncertain or accept higher levels of temperature overshoot and climate damage.
‘The safer route is a rapid, planned phase–out of fossil fuels, powered by clean electrification.’
The analysis comes as a report confirmed that greenhouse gas emissions have hit an all–time high.
The annual Indicators of Global Climate Change report found that 56.8 billion tonnes of CO2 were released in 2024.
The vast majority of these emissions came from burning fossil fuels, such as coal, petrol, and diesel, while other forms of industry, including agriculture, also contributed.
This brings the concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere to 425.6 parts per million in 2025, the highest level ever recorded.
Concentrations of the greenhouse gases methane and nitrous oxide also hit record concentrations, respectively reaching 1936.3 parts per billion (ppb) and 339.4 ppb.
And despite a push towards green energy, total greenhouse gas emissions are still increasing, albeit not quite as fast as they were at the peak during the 2000s.
In their report, 70 scientists from around the world warn that this buildup of gases is directly causing the planet to warm far faster than any natural processes could account for.
Dr Matt Palmer, Science Fellow at the UK Met Office, says: ‘It comes down to a simple principle: we are emitting more greenhouse gases than ever before, causing rising greenhouse gas levels which are trapping more and more heat in the atmosphere and pushing the world out of balance.’
