Editor’s Note: On May 4, John Persinos, editor-in-chief of Aircraft Value Intelligence, interviewed Richard Aboulafia, one of the most influential aerospace analysts in the world, to get a “big picture” view of salient trends in global aerospace. The following is a transcript condensed for concision, with questions in bold.
John Persinos, editor-in-chief of Aircraft Value Intelligence, interviewed aerospace analyst Richard Aboulafia on May 4, 2026.
I’ll put it bluntly: who’s winning the race these days, Boeing or Airbus? In your calculations, use the standard metrics, such as production rates, order book, deliveries, revenue, profits, and new technology.
Both are winning. Perhaps not as much as some key players in the jetliner supply chain, but both Airbus and Boeing are doing quite well right now. More on that in a moment!
Boeing released first-quarter 2026 operating results that showed a $90 million loss, but I argue that if you look deeper, Boeing really showed big gains. Revenue exceeded expectations and the company has significantly ramped up production. It seems that under CEO Kelly Ortberg, Boeing has turned the corner. Would you agree, or is the verdict still out?
I think the verdict is very much in on Boeing and the verdict is favorable. The company needed an adult in the room, and it got one. After years of horrific mismanagement, the company is run by a respected aerospace professional.
Ortberg is moving conservatively and slowly, but the results are starting to show. He’s emphasizing safety and engineering quality, as opposed to quick financial gains. He is restoring Boeing’s reputation.
Boeing’s recovery means it’s growing at a much faster pace than Airbus, but Airbus has greater commercial revenue and will continue to be in the top spot for some time.
Let’s talk about the Iran war. [Richard groans and John laughs in response] Sorry, gotta discuss it. Okay, crude oil prices are hovering at more than $100 per barrel, which is creating expensive and scarce jet fuel. Pentagon Chief Pete Hegseth hates it when the Iran conflict is called a “quagmire,” but the fact is, the Middle East won’t stabilize anytime soon. How badly is the aerospace sector feeling the squeeze from this protracted conflict?
Now, at the risk of annoying John Cleese’s Fawlty Towers character Basil, let’s talk about the war. So far, things are reasonably okay…the damage to airline traffic is localized and not too serious, and overall disruptions are manageable. But I’m really not sure that markets — equities, fuel, everything — have adequately priced in risk.
Everyone seems to be going with the consensus view that either the U.S. somehow wins or Trump Always Chickens Out (TACO). But the first doesn’t look too likely, and it’s certainly possible that this is one time the TACO trade fails. That leaves us with months of considerably more expensive fuel.
The results of this scenario would be damage to what had been a white-hot Maintenance, Repair and Overall (MRO) sector, damage to air travel demand, and perhaps a few more airline bankruptcies. Since the sector is already pretty well consolidated, it’s not likely that we’d see any more mega-mergers.
On the positive side, I don’t see much risk to new build deliveries. That large backlog is there for a reason: airlines have not been able to get what they want, and high fuel prices mean they have every reason to want new planes even more. Thus, the only damage would likely be to the MRO sector.
Let’s shift from economics to technology. What new aviation technology excites you these days and why?
What’s exciting? Propulsion! Whether it’s open rotor or ducted ultra-high bypass, something new is coming late in the next decade, and it will be a fascinating contest to get there. Blended Wing Body (BWB) is also exciting, but far less certain, and perhaps more of a 2040 story.
Thanks for your time.
John Persinos is the editor-in-chief of Aircraft Value Intelligence. To view John’s interviews with the aerospace industry’s top influencers, visit the video section at: www.aviationtoday.com
