HURRICANE HQ 🌀: NOAA Climate Prediction Center meteorologist Nathaniel Johnson joins FOX Weather Meteorologists Marissa Torres and Stephen Morgan to discuss the rising odds of a
A brewing El Niño is expected to take shape as Pacific waters rapidly warm, with new climate updates pointing to rising odds of this powerful pattern developing into a “Super” El Niño later this year.
While there is uncertainty about how strong it will get and when it peaks, one thing is clear: El Niño will play a major role in shaping the upcoming hurricane season.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) Climate Prediction Center updated its El Niño Southern Ossicilation (ENSO) forecast – and the chances that it reaches “Super” El Niño strength are increasing.
The brewing El Niño is expected to emerge by this summer, as favorable conditions continue. In the ENSO update, the NOAA continued the El Niño Watch, setting the stage for a high chance of an El Niño developing between May and July.
With development as early as May, NOAA predicts that El Niño will rapidly build in strength each month – with increased chances of it reaching Super El Niño status by fall or winter.
WHAT ARE EL NINO AND LA NINA CLIMATE PATTERNS?
Currently, ENSO neutral conditions are present and will continue to persist across the equatorial Pacific. The equatorial pacific is the heartbeat of El Niño—what happens there drives the entire pattern, shaping weather around the globe and setting the tone for hurricane season.
Sea surface temperatures continue to warm rapidly in the easternmost Pacific (Niño-1+2 region), where temperatures are already above average, alongside widespread above-average subsurface ocean temperatures.
El Niño Soutern Oscillation Regions.
BREWING SUPER EL NIÑO COULD TURN THE CALIFORNIA COAST INTO A SUMMER HOTSPOT FOR GREAT WHITE SHARKS
This warming trend is expected to continue heading into late May and the summer months, in addition to forecasts strongly suggesting that El Niño conditions continue into the upcoming winter months.
While the development of an El Niño is extremely likely, there is high uncertainty as to when the climate pattern will be at its peak strength.
El Niño effect on tropical development.
(FOX Weather / FOX Weather)
“Stronger El Niño events do not ensure strong impacts; they can only make certain impacts more likely,” The Climate Prediction Center ENSO diagnostic update said.
The strength of an El Niño event does not directly correlate with more significant weather impacts, it does make certain seasonal anomalies and climate changes more likely.
