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Dangerous severe weather threat extends into early week for Central US

by LJ News Opinions
May 15, 2026
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 Severe storms are kicking off across the Plains and South already, but the threat isn’t likely to end until early next week. Storms are expected to fire up on Sunday and Monday, with a level 3 out of 5 threat already in place. These are likely to bring a widespread threat for large hail and tornadoes. 

Severe weather season isn’t over, as the week of back-to-back storms has proven. Things are expected to ramp up on Sunday, as another round of dangerous storms moves into the Central U.S. 

Storms are expected to bring a widespread threat of large hail and tornadoes to more than 40 million across the Midwest on Sunday and Monday. 

On Sunday, a strong dip in the jet stream will anchor itself over the western U.S., sending energy into the middle of the country. A deepening area of low pressure is forecast to intensify through Sunday afternoon as it tracks northeastward. 

TORNADO SAFETY: EVERYTHING YOU NEED TO KNOW ABOUT TAKING SHELTER DURING SEVERE WEATHER

A surge of moisture from the Gulf, combined with warm temperatures, will fuel instability for storm development.

The heart of storm activity will stretch from central Minnesota to the Texas panhandle, where a broad level 2 out of 5 severe storm threat reaches on Sunday. 

WHAT IS A SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORM?

On Sunday afternoon and evening, the primary concern will be the development of discrete, long-lived supercell thunderstorms.

ELKHORN, WISCONSIN – APRIL 17: Storm clouds form on April 17, 2026 near Elkhorn, Wisconsin. 

(Jeffrey Phelps / Getty Images)

These storms will be capable of producing very large hail, potentially 3 inches or larger, along with a risk for tornadoes. 

The potential chance for tornadoes will be the strongest at and after sunset. Some of these tornadoes could be strong, according to the FOX Forecast Center. 

Monday will feature a more widespread level 2 out of 5 threat, reaching from Michigan to Texas, spanning more than 1,000 miles. 

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Sunday-Tuesday severe weather outlook
(FOX Weather)

 

Both Sunday and Monday feature a smaller, more concentrated level 3 out of 5 threat for severe storms, focused over portions of South Dakota, Minnesota, Iowa and Nebraska on Sunday. 

On Monday, the level 3 out of 5 threat pushes south into much of Kansas, eastern Nebraska and western Iowa. 

Like Sunday, Monday’s main concern is large hail and a few strong tornadoes. 

HOW TO WATCH FOX WEATHER

Early week rain forecast
(FOX Weather)

 

The threat extends once again into Tuesday, where a level 2 out of 5 storm threat is in effect from Oklahoma to Illinois. 

By the time storms wrap up on Tuesday, a widespread 1 to 2 inches of rain is possible from Minnesota to Texas, with locally higher amounts of 2 to 3 inches possible. 



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Tags: hailIllinoisIowaKansasMichiganmidwestMinnesotaNebraskaOklahomaSevere weathersouth dakotaStay22TexasthunderstormstornadoesWind
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