A hurricane has never made landfall in California, but an expert meteorologist believes the stage is set for a historic storm to threaten millions along the coast.
AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist and Long Range Forecaster Paul Pastelok told the Daily Mail there are three key ingredients needed for a cyclone to form in the Pacific and make the rare turn toward the California Coast.
First, the hurricane needs extremely warm water between Mexico and the Baja California Peninsula, the thin, 775-mile-long strip of land right below California and the US-Mexico border.
The second is a weather pattern that slides down from the Pacific Northwest into California that can pull a tropical storm north instead of letting it fade or turn out to sea.
The last ingredient is calmer upper-level winds in the eastern Pacific, which make it less likely that the hurricane gets ripped apart and more likely to keep its strength.
Pastelok warned that, thanks to the weather phenomenon El Niño warming the Pacific this summer, these ingredients are already coming together to make a severe storm not just possible, but likely during hurricane season.
Moreover, Pastelok’s team has predicted that this El Niño could be one of the strongest in history and continue to affect the weather through next year.
He said: ‘That water is just sitting there, boiling around the Baja. If anything does form and take a turn, it may be able to maintain itself longer than it normally does before it dissipates. And so, the intensity of the aftermath of tropical systems could be felt in parts of California this year.’
Tropical Storm Karina (Seen on radar) is one of multiple Pacific hurricanes to threaten the California Coast this summer
Multiple tropical cyclones have formed during the 2026 Pacific hurricane season. Forecasters have warned of rare impacts in the US Southwest and Hawaii
The formation of El Niño means that the Pacific Ocean has become noticeably warmer than its historical average.
However, this warming flips global weather patterns, giving storms in the Pacific more warm water to use as fuel, while weakening hurricanes in the Atlantic by making the air more turbulent.
AccuWeather meteorologists predicted that this year’s El Niño will likely see surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean rise by 4.8°F (2.66°C), which is often described as a ‘Super’ El Niño.
Pastelok said this first ingredient is essentially locked in place through the end of 2026, calling the increasing temperatures between Mexico and the Baja a ‘marine heat wave.’
This basically turns the ocean into a giant fuel tank for storms. Hurricanes and tropical storms need warm water to stay strong and grow.
It gives any major thunderstorm the energy it needs to keep spinning into a more organized cyclone and keep moving north instead of weakening and falling apart like Pacific storms usually do as they head toward California.
Pastelok noted that the last time a major storm made landfall in Southern California was when the remnants of Hurricane Hilary came ashore in 2023, however, conditions in the Pacific prevented it from holding its structure as it reached the US.
‘Look at the conditions we have this year. It does escalate the chances that a storm could hold its formation,’ the meteorologist warned.
Pictured: A maintenance vehicle clears mud near stranded vehicles along a flooded street after Tropical Storm Hilary struck Cathedral City, California on August 21, 2023 (File Image)
California residents battled flooding and power outages during Hurricane Nora in 1997, the last tropical cyclone to officially make landfall in California (File Image)
‘It doesn’t happen often, it’s very difficult, but [a storm] could hold its formation all the way up into extreme Southern California or Arizona, through the Baja. Those water temperatures are so high right now, above average,’ Pastelok added.
As for the forecaster’s second ingredient, weather systems that can help pull storms from the south tend to vary day to day.
Weather systems, which are giant areas of low pressure, sometimes slide south from the Pacific Northwest and into California. They act like a giant vacuum cleaner along the West Coast.
When this takes place, it can create a kind of suction that helps draw in tropical storms from the area between Mexico and the Baja Peninsula.
Without this pull, most storms would just stay farther south or turn west out to sea in the direction of Hawaii.
‘If you look now, we continue to see systems moving southward into the northwest in Western California every so often,’ Pastelok told the Daily Mail this summer.
‘That also helps if you get one of those systems to get down in the late summer; it can draw up some of those tropical systems from the south.’
A clear sign of this has been the emergence of Hurricane Marie, which erupted near the coast of Mexico on September 2.
Spaghetti models, which track all possible paths of tropical storms and hurricanes, show multiple tracks where the storm spins east and lands a direct hit somewhere between San Diego and Los Angeles in early September.
Forecasts models show multiple tracks which could lead to a landfall for Hurricane Marie along the California Coast
AccuWeather’s lead long range forecaster Paul Pastelok
As for the final ingredient, the emerging super El Niño has given many storms in the Pacific a clear path to develop and rampage over land masses they rarely impact – thanks to lower vertical wind shear.
Wind shear is when winds at different heights are blowing at different speeds or in different directions.
Strong wind shear similarly impacts tropical cyclones to someone constantly trying to tip over a spinning top.
El Niño reduces that ‘tipping’ force in the Eastern Pacific, potentially letting tropical storms grow into hurricanes, and smaller hurricanes grow into major Category 3 hurricanes or even larger.
‘The frequency of shear is going to be way down compared to other years. So that’s the third thing. The lowering of the wind shear more frequently in that Eastern Pacific gives you that extra to allow stuff to form and give the possibilities of these things to come north,’ Pastelok explained.
Until now, the California Current has brought much colder water closer to the coast, preventing major storms from making landfall.
Storms were also blocked from reaching California by prevailing northeast trade winds, which steer eastern Pacific weather systems to the west – towards Hawaii or open water.
Hurricane Nora directly impacted Southern California as a tropical storm in 1997. It was the last official tropical cyclone to make landfall in the state (File Image)
Scientists warn that a so–called ‘Super’ El Nino could push global temperatures (above) to record–breaking highs
The last time California was struck by a cyclone at tropical storm strength was in 1997 when a weakening Hurricane Nora crossed from Mexico into the US.
That storm crossed into the US on September 25, 1997, mainly causing rain, rough surf and slick roads across Southern California.
The California Highway Patrol reportedly documented three or four traffic deaths in Southern California due to the weather, and 125,000 power customers in the Los Angeles area lost electricity.
Even if California avoids a direct hit from Karina or another named cyclone this year, Pastelok warned that multiple states could still feel the impact of a busy Pacific hurricane season.
‘I’m not saying that California can get hit with a tropical system. Most of the time, they fall apart, but the moisture with dry ground can cause massive flooding.’
‘And so, you can have roads, rivers, all those kinds of things, a tremendous amount of damage can happen in the southwest alone from one or two systems,’ he continued.
‘The intensity of the aftermath of tropical systems could be felt in parts of California this year, not once, maybe twice. Arizona, especially, and New Mexico.’
