As we head into August, we’re taking a look at what the month may hold with hurricane season, temperatures and precipitation. FOX Weather Meteorologist Melanie Black gives us the outlook:
As we inch closer to peak hurricane season, El Niño continues to strengthen, suppressing any tropical systems from developing as tropical waves move off the coast of Africa.
We’re two months into the Atlantic hurricane season, and we’ve seen two named storms so far: one in June and one in July.
Multiple tropical waves are currently moving off the African coast into the Main Development Region of the Atlantic, but hostile winds, Saharan dust and ocean temperatures will determine whether any development actually happens, the FOX Forecast Center said.
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Currently, much of this area is dominated by strong wind and widespread dry, dusty Saharan air, which is suppressing thunderstorm development.
The FOX Forecast Center said one thing in favor of tropical system development is sea surface temperatures.
However, the warm waters are being offset by the continued strengthening of El Niño, which typically suppresses tropical activity across the Atlantic basin.
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As we reach the peak of hurricane season in September and beyond, El Niño is expected to continue strengthening, likely reaching “super” status and becoming one of the strongest El Niños ever.
For now, the greatest concern remains homegrown development across the Gulf and the Southeast, the FOX Forecast Center said.
Both Arthur and Bertha formed in these areas.
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Typically, the third named storm of the season forms by Aug. 3, which this year will get the name Cristobal.
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An updated El Niño/ Southern Oscillation (ENSO) forecast will drop in mid-August, which will offer more insight into how strong El Niño is likely to be later this year.
Meanwhile, the Eastern Pacific continues to be extremely active with El Niño fueling tropical activity in the region.
Hurricane season runs from June 1 to Nov. 30.
