As extremely hostile conditions continue to limit hurricane activity in the Atlantic basin, it’s expected to remain quiet for the first few weeks of August. FOX Weather Meteorologist Stephen Morgan breaks down how a strengthening El Niño, Saharan dust and wind are acting as a roadblock for tropical development:
Peak hurricane season is approaching, though El Niño is continuing to strengthen — acting like a buffer that is limiting tropical activity as waves move off the coast of Africa.
It’s been just over two months into the Atlantic hurricane season, and we’ve seen two named storms so far: one in June and one in July — Arthur and Bertha, respectively.
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Right now, numerous tropical waves are moving off the coast of Africa into the Main Development Region (MDR). These are essentially the starting blocks for future storms.
For perspective, on average, 60 to 65 tropical waves emerge from Africa each year as the African monsoon strengthens.
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This typically occurs from April through November, with a new wave developing every 2 to 4 days during the peak of the season.
That said, the factors preventing these waves from developing further include strong wind shear and widespread dry, dusty Saharan air. And this is not expected to change within the next seven days.
Hence, “the National Hurricane Center continues to show crickets across the Atlantic, the Caribbean and the Gulf into this weekend,” FOX Weather Hurricane Specialist Bryan Norcross said.
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However, water temperatures are hovering slightly above average and while much of the disturbance will succumb to the hostile environment, something could develop.
Though it’s looking less likely as of Sunday night, a northern piece of the system could eventually make it to the Atlantic.
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According to FOX Weather Hurricane Specialist Bryan Norcross, “This is a little bit plausible because, in this scenario, the disturbance would migrate west well to the north of the hostile winds across the Caribbean. It would still have to survive its encounter with the Saharan dust.”
Much of the Atlantic basin continues to remain quiet as a dense Saharan dust cloud dominates the tropics. However, out in the far eastern waters, a large disturbance sits west of the Cabo Verde Islands. FOX Weather Hurricane Specialist Bryan Norcross gives us his exclusive analysis:
Typically, the third named storm of the season forms by Aug. 3, which this year will get the name Cristobal.
As we reach the peak of hurricane season in September and beyond, El Niño is expected to continue strengthening, likely reaching “super” status and becoming one of the strongest El Niños ever.
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An updated El Niño/ Southern Oscillation (ENSO) forecast will drop in mid-August, which will offer more insight into how strong El Niño is likely to be later this year.
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Meanwhile, the Eastern Pacific continues to be extremely active with El Niño fueling tropical activity in the region.
Hurricane season runs from June 1 to Nov. 30.
Beyond the next week
According to the FOX Forecast Center, some computer forecast models are now looking at the next tropical wave early next week.
“As of right now, it remains only something to watch, as it too will have to contend with all the same unfavorable conditions mentioned above. The tropical wave could try to organize next Monday through Wednesday,” the FOX Forecast Center said.
Stay with FOX Weather for the latest updates.
