The latest NBC News poll, which was conducted before a gunman fired at former President Donald Trump and rallygoers in Pennsylvania on Saturday, showed both President Joe Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris trailing Republican Donald Trump by 2 points in head-to-head matchups.
Trump led Biden 45%-43%, with 12% undecided or preferring another choice, while the Republican former president was ahead of Harris 47%-45%, with 8% undecided or preferring another choice. Both results are within the poll’s margin of error.
But inside those head-to-head results, the poll found where Harris runs stronger than Biden, where she was weaker and where there was almost no difference, as some in the Democratic Party clamor for a nominee other than Biden following his June debate against Trump.
For starters, the NBC News poll showed Harris slightly outperforming Biden among Black voters, leading Trump among this demographic by 64 points (78% to 14%). That compares with Biden’s 57-point lead among Black voters (69% to 12%).
Meanwhile, the poll showed Trump doing slightly better among white voters when matched up with Harris instead of Biden, leading her by 16 points among these voters, compared with his 14-point advantage here against Biden.
(These subgroups of voters, however, all have substantially larger margins of error than the poll’s overall margin of error, which is plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.)
Among other demographics — by age, by gender, among Latino voters — there was very little difference between Biden or Harris.
But the biggest differences between Biden and Harris in the matchup against Trump go well beyond demographics.
Among the roughly quarter of Republican voters who say they are unsatisfied with Trump as the GOP’s nominee, Trump is ahead of Biden by 46 points, 63% to 17%.
When Trump’s opponent is Harris, however, more of these dissatisfied GOP voters flock to Trump. The Republican’s lead with that group grows to 57 points, 73% to 16%.
Meanwhile, among the voters who prefer a third-party candidate in the poll’s multicandidate ballot test, Trump and Biden are virtually tied with these voters in a head-to-head matchup: Trump 32%, Biden 31%, with a plurality declining to make a two-way choice, saying they were undecided, would pick another candidate, or something else.
But when Harris is the choice against Trump, more of those respondents made a pick in the two-way ballot test. The vice president leads Trump among these “other” voters, 46% to 39%, suggesting a higher upside with voters considering a third-party candidate.
The NBC News poll of 800 registered voters — 660 reached via cellphone — was conducted July 7-9, and it has an overall margin of error of plus-minus 3.5 percentage points.
