NEW YORK – After a roller-coaster start to fall, much of the country will hold onto summerlike conditions during October, according to the latest monthly climate outlook from NOAA.
The outlook suggests that much of the Plains, Midwest and Northeast will likely see above-average temperatures, while very few regions, if any, are expected to experience widespread below-normal readings.
October is typically when a large section of the country experiences its first frost of the season, particularly across the northern tier, with some locations, mainly north of Interstate 80, often seeing their first freeze by mid- to late month.
This year, however, that date may be delayed if temperatures remain more reminiscent of late summer than fall, with temperatures closer to record highs than lows.
October temperature outlook
(FOX Weather)
Dry weather to add to drought concerns
On the precipitation front, rainfall is expected to be scarce for much of the country.
Drier-than-average conditions are forecast to stretch from the Southwest to New England, with the nation’s midsection likely to experience the most significant deficits.
These potential shortfalls come at a time when nearly 70% of the country is classified as unusually dry, and almost half of the U.S. is experiencing at least moderate drought.
October usually marks peak foliage activity, but with drought conditions, hues could be less vibrant due to trees’ internal processes being impacted.
Without meaningful rainfall, conditions could worsen heading into November, which is historically one of the driest months of the year.
October precipitation outlook
(FOX Weather)
The Pacific Northwest and Florida could stand out as exceptions, with both regions having the potential to see above-normal precipitation, though forecasters caution that October outlooks carry higher-than-average errors due to the transitions of seasons.
Status of El Niño, La Niña
The month is usually a transition period not only for North America’s weather but also for the status of the El Niño Southern Oscillation or what is known as the ENSO for short.
Currently, the world is in a neutral “La Nada” phase, with sea-surface temperatures slightly cooler than average across the central and eastern Pacific.
This neutral stage tends to limit dramatic shifts in the jet stream, keeping colder Canadian air bottled up to the north and allowing for more persistent warmth across the southern U.S.
If a La Niña were to emerge, the pattern would likely create stronger dips in the jet stream, allowing colder air to plunge farther south into the country.
Forecasters are monitoring the possibility of a La Niña to emerge later this fall, but any development would likely come too late to significantly influence October’s weather.
FALL FOLIAGE SEASON BEGINS IN LOWER 48 WITH CHANGING LEAVES SPOTTED
Average first freeze date
(FOX Weather)
Hurricane season enters third-busiest month
Another factor that could shape the month is the ongoing Atlantic hurricane season.
October is historically the third-busiest month for tropical activity, producing an average of three named storms and at least one hurricane.
Late-season storms often form closer to the Gulf of America or Caribbean, regions that remain climatologically favorable for development.
Cyclones can not only lead to heavy rainfall along coastal areas, but also help to draw down cooler, drier air into more southern regions of the country.
This map shows where tropical cyclone activity tends to occur in October.
(FOX Weather)
