WASHINGTON (DC News Now) — The race for the Virginia Executive Mansion is as tight as they come, based on a survey by DC News Now, Emerson College Polling, and The Hill.
The poll found that Democrat Abigail Spanberger, a former U.S. representative serving Virginia’s 7th Congressional District, leads Republican Winsome Earle-Sears, the state’s current lieutenant governor, by a single percentage point.
Forty-two percent of those who responded to the DC News Now/Emerson College Polling/The Hill survey said they support Spanberger in her bid for governor, while 41% said they back Winsome-Sears in the gubernatorial election. Four percent of the people polled said they support someone else, and 13% said they are undecided.
“Ten months before the 2025 Virginia gubernatorial election, the race is tight overall but with
clear demographic differences standing out,” said Spencer Kimball, Executive Director of
Emerson College Polling. “Support for Sears is found among male voters, who break for the
Lieutenant Governor 52% to 37%, and White voters, who break for her 50% to 35%, while
Spanberger leads among women, 47% to 31%, and both older and young voters: those over 70,
who break for Spanberger 46% to 43%, and those under 30 who break for her 43% to 33%.”
A majority of Virginia voters (51%) who responded to the poll said they feel their economic situation is worse than it was four years ago. Twenty-seven percent feel their situation is better; 22% feel it is has not changed.
“Among those who feel their economic situation is worse than four years ago, 56% think the state is headed in the right direction and 56% have a favorable view of the Governor. Additionally, 66% of those who feel they are worse off than four years ago have an unfavorable view of President Biden, suggesting they may be blaming the president rather than Governor Youngkin for their current economic situation,” Kimball said.
Governor Glenn Youngkin holds a 48% favorable rating, while 35% have an unfavorable view of him. Spanberger has a 38% favorable rating, and 21% unfavorable. Twenty-four percent are neutral and 17% are not familiar with the candidate. Earle-Sears has a 33% favorable rating, and 22% unfavorable. Twenty-seven percent are neutral, and 18% are not familiar with the lieutenant governor.
The top issue for Virginia voters is the economy (38%) followed by housing affordability (14%), health care (10%), education (8%), threats to democracy (8%), crime (7%), immigration (7%),
and abortion access (5%).
Methodology
The DC News Now/Emerson College Polling/The Hill Virginia survey was conducted January 6-8, 2025. The sample of Virginia registered voters, n=1,000, has a credibility interval, similar to a poll’s margin of error (MOE), of +/- 3 percentage points. The data sets were weighted by gender, education, race, age, party registration, and region.
It is important to remember that subsets based on demographics, such as gender, age, education, and race/ethnicity, carry with them higher credibility intervals, as the sample size is reduced. Survey results should be understood within the poll’s range of scores, and with a confidence interval of 95% a poll will fall outside the range of scores 1 in 20 times.
Data was collected by contacting cell phones via MMS-to-web text, landlines via interactive voice response and (phone list provided by Aristotle), and an online panel of voters provided by CINT. The survey was offered in English.
All questions asked in this survey with the exact wording, along with full results, demographics, and cross tabulations can be found under Full Results. This survey was funded by Emerson College/Nexstar Media.
