Recently, President Donald Trump fulfilled another campaign promise by ordering the Defense Department to develop a plan for what he calls an “Iron Dome for America,” named after the wildly successful Israeli missile defense system.
Whereas the Israeli Iron Dome deals with short-range missiles and is part of a three-tier system that also includes David’s Sling and the Arrow, the American version will deal with far deadlier threats. The proposal more resembles the multi-tiered defense system envisioned by the Reagan-era Strategic Defense Initiative, popularly known as Star Wars.
The space-based element is described in section three of the executive order, which calls for “acceleration of the deployment of the Hypersonic and Ballistic Tracking Space Sensor layer” and “development and deployment of proliferated space-based interceptors capable of boost-phase intercept.”
The executive order also heavily implies that beam weapons such as lasers will be included when it references “development and deployment of non-kinetic capabilities to augment the kinetic defeat of ballistic, hypersonic, advanced cruise missiles, and other next-generation aerial attacks.”
The desirability of possessing a missile shield has become as great as it ever was during the Cold War. With the fall of the Soviet Union, the threat of a global thermonuclear war receded to a certain extent.
Rogue countries such as North Korea and Iran have been developing their own nuclear arsenals. The Missile Defense Agency has been developing systems such as the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense system to deal with that threat.
Amid heightened tensions with both Russia and China, the threat of a nuclear exchange with a near-peer power has returned. Hence, Trump has decided to revive the idea of a comprehensive missile defense system.
Space-based weapons will be a key component of boost-phase defense. Intercontinental ballistic missiles have several warheads that are released sometime during flight and then seek separate targets. If a weapon destroys an ICBM shortly after it leaves the silo and before it releases the warheads, then there is no need to separately track and destroy those projectiles.
Hypersonic weapons are a threat that did not exist during the Cold War but are keeping policymakers awake at night. Unlike ballistic missiles, hypersonic missiles can change course on their way to their targets, the better to evade tracking and defenses. A space-based system capable of taking down such weapons before they start evasive maneuvers would be very useful to possess.
Why build a comprehensive anti-missile defense system now, in the 2020s? The balance of terror and the knowledge that a nuclear strike on an enemy would result in retaliation has ensured that no nuclear weapon has been fired in anger since Hiroshima and Nagasaki.
The stark truth is that the threat of nuclear war by miscalculation is just as real now as during the Cold War. That is especially true since the United States finds itself in conflict with the two other major nuclear powers, Russia and China.
Russia’s imperial ambitions that have sparked a war of aggression in Ukraine have brought American and European opposition. What if Russian President Vladimir Putin, in a desperate final gambit, unleashes his nuclear arsenal?
A Chinese attempt to annex Taiwan, which it regards as a breakaway province, but is actually an independent nation, would also invite American and allied opposition. Such a conflict could also spiral out of control into a nuclear exchange.
Trump’s “Iron Dome” would be a great asset in a world where superpower conflict still festers. Putin and Xi would think twice before rattling the nuclear saber if they knew that a nuclear strike would be stopped by a missile defense shield.
Russia is well aware of the efficacy of missile defense. According to Reuters, “Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said the plan was aimed at undermining the ability of both Russia and China to exercise nuclear deterrence.”
Zakharova also accused Trump of plotting to militarize space, a curious statement considering Russia’s continued development of anti-satellite weapons. Space-based weapons could also be used to stop ASAT weapons before they start taking out American and allied space assets.
The Trump executive order notes that developing a missile defense system is part of a strategy of “peace through strength,” first expressed by President Reagan, of preventing war through the possession of overwhelming military power.
Or, as a Roman writer once noted, “If you want peace, prepare for war.”
Mark R. Whittington is the author of “Why is It So Hard to Go Back to the Moon?” as well as “The Moon, Mars and Beyond” and, most recently, “Why is America Going Back to the Moon?” He blogs at Curmudgeons Corner.
