Talk about fumbling a $1 trillion Ukraine deal on the one-yard line. Team Trump foolishly did just that Friday in the Oval Office, and in doing so, they turned the football over to Russian President Vladimir Putin.
Instead of taking the easy win, President Trump and Vice President JD Vance turned the meeting into a bad episode of “Survivor.” Tempers flared, accusations were bandied about and Zelensky was asked to leave the White House.
Trump’s Ukraine reconstruction pact – principally a deal to develop $11.5 trillion of rare earth minerals (REM) – was left unsigned. By heatedly personalizing his differences with Zelensky, Trump handed Putin – at least for now – a lifeline for his faltering war in Ukraine.
Putin knows Ukraine’s REMs are crucial in this war. So too does Chinese President Xi Jinping. Until their Oval Office meltdown, Trump and Vance were positioned to put wins on the board against Russia and China.
Half of Ukraine’s REM wealth is in the eastern and southern regions of the country that are illegally occupied by Russian troops. Trump had signaled that he understood this. On Wednesday he said, “we’re going to try very hard to make a good deal so that [Ukraine] can get as much back as possible.”
Instead of blowing up the deal, Trump should have been more focused on working with Zelensky to secure it, especially since the chase for Ukraine’s REMs has turned into a modern-day gold rush. Putin already sees himself as the Don of the Donbas.
The question for the White House had been how best to secure it. Trump was pressing for a post-war European peacekeeping force that Russia is rejecting.
The United Kingdom is willing, as are the French. But, as British Prime Minister Keir Starmer noted during his Oval Office comments on Thursday, they are requesting that U.S. military forces serve as a “backstop.”
Europe on its own lacks resources sufficient to deter future Russian aggression and to defend Ukraine and its REM riches. Only the U.S. or NATO can sufficiently provide those capabilities.
Trump initially appeared to understand this necessity during a question-and-answer session with Starmer. When asked about U.S. peacekeeping forces in post-war Ukraine, Trump said “if they need help, I’ll always be with the British.”
What a difference 24 hours make. By Friday, Trump’s play to usurp Putin’s role as the would-be Don of the Donbas came to a screeching halt.
Somehow during that timeframe Trump lost the gist of his own plot. His would-be REM deal is worthless if he cannot defend it.
Zelensky understands that reality. It is why he was – and is – forcefully arguing for U.S. security guarantees.
Yet in doing so, Zelensky revealed Trump’s blind spot. Trump believes the force of his personality is enough to stop any future Russian aggression.
It won’t be.
Presidents come and go. Yet the Russian threat to Ukraine will remain. It started in 2014, when Putin seized parts of the Donbas and Crimea. It resumed in February 2022 – and it will again unless Russia is checked by a robust deterrence force.
If Trump doesn’t want to put U.S. troops on the ground, then he has other options. He can sufficiently arm Ukraine to win, greenlight a NATO peacekeeping force or agree to Ukraine’s accession to NATO as a full member state protected by Article 5, which requires a collective defense in the event of an attack.
For now, however, Trump is unwilling to go down either path. Instead, he is content to risk letting Putin get away with what can only be described as “the art of the steal.” It is lost on Trump – or at least it was on Friday as Vance spurred him on – that Zelensky’s requests are about more than just defending Ukraine but also determining whether Trump or Putin ultimately controls the REM treasure map.
Putin knew he was in a weak negotiating position — that is until Trump and Vance’s Oval Office outbursts strengthened his hand.
That is why earlier Putin offered his own REM deal to Trump that included exploiting areas of Ukraine controlled by Russia. Putin’s offer included the U.S. and Russia jointly developing REMs along the Northern Sea Route and North Pole.
But beware of Trojan gifts. Putin and Xi’s “No Limits” alliance is as strong as ever – and Beijing is intent on Russia and China dominating the NSR and Arctic polar region. Eventually, the U.S. would find itself on the outside looking in if Trump struck a REM deal with Putin.
Team Trump also needs to recognize that there is another would-be Don of the Donbas in the making: Xi. Beijing’s Belt & Road Initiative (BRI) is already heavily invested in Ukraine. Two key rail arteries – designed to allow China to dominate trade with the European Union – were set to run through the heart of Ukraine.
Xi, like Trump and Putin, has his sights set on extracting Ukraine’s REMs. The BRI rail lines are intended to facilitate that as well.
As such, it is a three-way contest. Until Friday, Trump held all the winning cards. Putin’s military essentially has fought itself to a standstill – and Xi’s military lacks force projection. Only the U.S. and its NATO allies can dictate a winner in Ukraine.
Yet, despite holding a losing hand, the Kremlin is nowhere near ending its war in Ukraine. Putin still wants all of Ukraine.
Until Russia suffers significant military setbacks in Ukraine, Putin’s negotiating position will not change. That will take a kinetic punch to the mouth.
Trump’s best play in terms of ensuring U.S. troops are never needed in Ukraine is to continue arming the AFU.
He must empower Ukraine’s ability to interdict Russian forces before they reach the frontlines. That includes providing more deep strike precision weapons such as the German-made Taurus and U.S. ATACMS.
He must also maximize Ukraine’s ability to protect its civilian population centers. Putin is trying to murder his way into a favorable negotiating outcome. And finally, Trump must remove any remaining obstacles to deep strikes. Let the AFU attack Russia’s ability to wage and finance the war.
Victory is there for the taking. So too the REMs if Trump gets back on the right path.
Mark Toth writes on national security and foreign policy. Col. (Ret.) Jonathan Sweet served 30 years as an Army intelligence officer.
