It is the season of remorse and regret for Democrats. The reelection of Donald Trump to a second, non-consecutive presidential term is, by conventional standards, one of the most unlikely events in recent political memory.
Yet one thing that is not at all unconventional or surprising is the reaction among those of the vanquished party. Democrats have fallen into a predictable pattern of self-recrimination, finger-pointing and despair.
The Democrats’ losses of the House, the Senate and the presidency in November have resulted in a stream of punditry on why the party is a hopeless failure and doomed to the electoral wilderness, barring a radical course correction.
The 2024 victory of Trumpism has robbed Democrats of the will to resist and yielded fatalistic acceptance of a new American political reality, reshaped in the image of the incoming president.
This reaction is entirely predictable. Every election defeat brings a similar phenomenon, Democrats and Republicans alike. Today it is the Democrats, but an era of Republican minority wilderness has been proclaimed in 2002, 2012, 2020 and even 1994, the year they regained control of the House for the first time in 40 years.
And this is certainly not Democrats’ first foray into the proverbial dustbin, as similar malaise emerged in the wake of 2004, 2010 and 2016. Yet, the vanquished party is always one election away from redemption. Just ask Donald Trump in 2024.
Democrats, like all of us, are certainly in for a Trumpy ride in the months ahead. But it won’t last. Despite the shock of his comeback, Trump reenters the presidency as a lame duck. The clock starts ticking on the end of the Trump presidency from the moment he swears in on January 20.
Second terms are never a joy ride for presidents and already fissures between Trump and House and Senate Republicans are being seen. Trump may be packing the executive branch with loyalists this round, but early signals point to a far less docile Congress.
What’s more, Republican control of the House and Senate is by only razor-thin margins, and the party in power in the White House historically can look forward to poor performance in congressional midterms. Whatever the MAGA movement hopes to achieve in Trump’s second term, it will need to do so fast, against the growing specter of difficult midterm fights and possible losses of congressional control in 2026.
Beyond Congress, in the era of the permanent campaign, Trump faces inevitable rivalry when members of the Republican Party begin jockeying for the 2028 presidential nomination. The returning president has proven masterful at vanquishing those who oppose him.
However, with Trump no longer eligible to run, the nomination battle promises to be intense. Figures like Nikki Haley and Govs. Glen Youngkin (R-Va.) and Ron DeSantis (R-Fla.), who Trump might defeat in a head-to-head contest, won’t be as easy to quash when he himself is not on the ballot.
Meanwhile, people who Trump has brought into his fold, such as JD Vance, Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.), and Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-N.Y.) will have to consider moves outside the Trump tent as the primary contest grows nearer.
This all points to a looming internal Republican food fight for power and the future of the party. With a lame-duck president and a tenuous hold on Congress, Republicans won’t have an easy time staying on message or keeping troops in line. Competition among rival figures seeking to rule in the post-Trump era will weaken whatever degree of party unity Trump has achieved.
The end of the Trump era is on the horizon and the Republican battle for ideological and electoral leadership is coming. Meantime, the Democrats, once they awaken from the nightmare months of November’s defeat, should be waiting in the wings.
There are those who claim that Trump’s presidency will evolve into some kind of dictatorship and that the man’s autocratic tendencies will drive his rule beyond the expiration of his term in 2028. Certainly, we have reason to believe that Trump would wish that this were so. But this is simply not how the U.S. Constitution works.
The 22nd Amendment, except for the most radical and flawed interpretations, strictly forbids a third term. Even conservative court judges have shown independence and ruled against Trump and MAGA Republicans, while plentiful, wield nowhere near the necessary power in Congress for either a coup or a Constitutional amendment.
Trump may, as he promises, achieve a lot of his MAGA agenda. Depending on your political stripes, this may be a period of American greatness or American carnage. No doubt, it will be one full of headline-worthy surprises. But if Donald Trump thinks he can make America great again, he doesn’t have much time to do it.
Brian Alexander, PhD, is an associate professor of Politics at Washington and Lee University and director of the W&L Washington Term. His writing and teaching focus on American politics and U.S. foreign policy and his publications include “A Social Theory of Congress: Legislative Norms in the Twenty-First Century” (Rowman & Littlefield 2021).
