FOX Weather Hurricane Specialist Bryan Norcross provides exclusive analysis on the track of Tropical Storm Melissa which formed Tuesday morning in the Central Caribbean Sea. Melissa is expected to develop into hurricane and could be a long-lived storm, but its ultimate track remains highly uncertain.
MIAMI – Forecasters with the National Hurricane Center (NHC) say Tropical Storm Melissa formed over the warm waters of the Caribbean Sea late Tuesday morning, prompting Hurricane and Tropical Storm Watches to be issued in advance of expected impacts.
Tropical Storm Melissa, which had originally been designated Invest 98L, is expected to continue to strengthen and is forecast to become a hurricane as it meanders in the central Caribbean over the next several days.
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According to the NHC, Tropical Storm Melissa has maximum sustained winds of 50 mph, and the storm is forecast to strengthen into at least a Category 1 hurricane by the weekend.
Tropical Storm Melissa is currently located about 300 miles to the south of Port-au-Prince, Haiti, and is moving off to the west at 13 mph.
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The NHC said that a decrease in forward speed and a gradual turn to the northwest and north is expected to occur over the next few days.
On that forecast track, Tropical Storm Melissa is expected to approach the southwestern part of Haiti and Jamaica later this week.
As a result, a Hurricane Watch has been issued for parts of Haiti, including Port-au-Prince, and a Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for Jamaica.
WHAT TO DO WHEN A HURRICANE WATCH OR TROPICAL STORM WATCH AND WARNINGS ARE ISSUED FOR YOUR TOWN
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The NHC said that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area in Haiti starting on Thursday, and tropical storm conditions are possible in Jamaica by Thursday or Friday.
Forecasters say there is an increasing risk that flooding could occur over portions of Haiti and the Dominican Republic as Tropical Storm Melissa meanders in the Caribbean Sea.
The NHC said 5-8 inches of rain, with locally higher amounts, could fall in Haiti and the Dominican Republic through Friday. Additional heavy rain is also possible beyond Friday, but uncertainty regarding Tropical Storm Melissa’s track and forward speed is reducing confidence in rainfall totals beyond Friday.
That heavy rain is also raising fears of flash flooding, mudslides and landslides in areas of higher terrain.
Over areas of Aruba, Puerto Rico and Jamaica, about 1-3 inches of rain could fall through Friday, and flash and urban flooding will also be possible there.
Swells generated by Tropical Storm Melissa will also spread to Hispaniola, Jamaica and the eastern tip of Cuba over the next few days, leading to large waves and rip currents at local beaches.
