Beach and outdoor plans in the Southeast could be in jeopardy this week as a stalling cold front combined with an influx of tropical moisture from the Gulf is increasing the risk of heavy rain and thunderstorms from Louisiana to Florida. FOX Weather Meteorologists Craig Herrera and Haley Meier break down the forecast on July 22, 2025.
TALLAHASSEE, Fla. – Beach and outdoor plans in the Southeast could be in jeopardy this week as a stalled cold front combined with an influx of tropical moisture from the Gulf is increasing the risk of heavy rain and thunderstorms from Louisiana to Florida, raising concerns of flooding.
The FOX Forecast Center said the setup is like the one that spawned Invest 93L off the U.S. East Coast last week, but tropical development this time around is unlikely at this point.
This graphic shows information on tropical moisture moving into the Gulf.
(FOX Weather)
A new area of low pressure may develop Tuesday into Wednesday near the same spot where Invest 93L formed last week. As that occurs, a cold front is expected to stall along the Southeast coast, and the new low-pressure system could form over the warm waters offshore.
The FOX Forecast Center said that while some spin is likely, the system is likely to remain broad and disorganized, with no signs of quick strengthening.
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(FOX Weather)
It will likely then get trapped under the growing heat dome and pushed off to the west, crossing Florida and hugging the Gulf Coast. But even without this system becoming organized, the low will tap into plenty of tropical moisture across the region.
This means tropical-like downpours are possible from Florida to Louisiana, especially along the Interstate 10 corridor from Tallahassee to New Orleans. So, for those traveling in the area, driving conditions could be tricky and slow by midweek and remain that way through at least Friday.
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(FOX Weather)
In terms of rainfall totals, about 2-3 inches could fall across much of the northern Gulf Coast, with some locally higher amounts. Widespread flash flooding isn’t expected, but isolated flooding could pop up in pockets of heavy rain sitting over an area for too long.
