The FOX Forecast Center is monitoring a tropical wave in the central and eastern parts of the Atlantic Ocean, but the feature is unlikely to develop into a significant storm that poses a threat to land.
The disturbance, located more than 800 miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands, is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms as it drifts westward at about 10 mph.
On Friday, the National Hurricane Center gave the disturbance a 20% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone within the next seven days.
Tracking the tropics on 7/18/2025
(FOX Weather)
2025 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON GUIDE: HERE’S WHAT TO KNOW ABOUT THE TROPICS THIS YEAR
“Environmental conditions could become marginally conducive for gradual development late this weekend through early next week,” NHC forecasters stated in a tropical weather outlook. “By the middle of next week, environmental conditions are forecast to become unfavorable for further development.”
If the system were to organize into a named storm, it would be called Dexter, but forecast models show it staying safely away from the U.S. and likely all other landmasses.
A combination of high shear and a significant layer of Saharan dust will keep any future system in check and prevent it from organizing into a long-track cyclone.
Saharan Air Layer analysis
(University of Wisconsin-Madison / FOX Weather)
Elsewhere across the basin, there could be a feature closer to the U.S. that deserves greater scrutiny.
Forecasters are keeping an eye on the remnants of Invest 93L, which originated off the coast of Florida and impacted the northern Gulf over the last week.
Some forecast models have been indicating that a weak area of low pressure could take a similar path over the remaining days of July.
The NHC has not highlighted the region yet for development, and the chances remain low that a cyclone will form either in the medium or long-term future, but it is a possibility that the FOX Forecast Center will be monitoring.
SAVING COASTAL LOUISIANA: A $50 BILLION-5-DECADE-LONG PLAN TO RESTORE MARSHLANDS
Expected rainfall
(FOX Weather)
A classic example of a circulation leaving the Gulf only to return as a cyclone is Hurricane Ivan back in 2004. However, that system was a powerful hurricane and not a weak disturbance that struggled to even reach tropical depression status.
A return to the Gulf would likely result in heavy rainfall and rough surf, similar to what was experienced during the system’s first pass, but the forecast will continue to be fine-tuned in the coming days.
Outside of the area off the Southeast U.S. coast and the central Atlantic, there are currently no indications that a significant cyclone will develop anytime soon in the Atlantic Basin.
The situation in the eastern Pacific is a bit different, with at least one significant cyclone potentially forming between now and the end of the month.
As is often the case with tropical storms and hurricanes in that region, systems tend to follow a westward trajectory, usually avoiding direct impacts on Mexico or communities along the Central American coastline.
