A TERRIFYING war game simulating a Russian attack on Nato reveals the West is desperately unprepared for an invasion.
The exercise, carried out by ex-German and Nato officials, concludes that Moscow would claim victory in days.
And Russia could prepare to make the move in just one year, officials have warned.
The scenario plays out in October 2026, with Russia using bogus claims of a “humanitarian crisis” in Kaliningrad to seize the Lithuanian city Marijampole.
The eastern city hosts a critical road intersection in Europe.
Bartłomiej Kot, a Polish security analyst acting as the games Polish prime minister, told the Wall Street Journal: “The Russians achieved most of their goals without moving many of their own units.”
Once confronted by the escalatory narrative from the Russian side, Nato are focused on “de-escalating”, he added.
The Kremlin would need as little as 15,000 troops to snatch control of the Baltic state, as the game suggests a hesitancy from Nato and absence of US leadership.
In the wargame, the US refused to invoke Nato’s Article 5 which ensures all members defend another member state under attack.
As Russia moves in, using drones to lay mines near a military base, Germany was hesitant to respond.
A brigade that had been deployed to Lithuania did not intervene.
Franz-Stefan Gady, a military analyst who acted as the Russian chief of general staff in the game, explained success was possible by pre-empting Germany’s hesitation.
“Deterrence depends not only on capabilities, but on what the enemy believes about our will, and in the wargame my ‘Russian colleagues’ and I knew: Germany will hesitate. And this was enough to win,” he said.
Meanwhile, Poland also mobilised but failed to send troops to defend the territory.
Putin is hellbent on resurrecting the glories of the Russian Empire, making countries that were once part of it like the Baltic nations, prime targets.
And European security and political leaders warned that Russia has switched to a war economy and its rearmament and military recruitment efforts reach far beyond the needs of its war in Ukraine.
It comes amid growing fears of a Russian attack on Nato.
Russian drones invaded Poland’s airspace in September, on a “direct path” towards a Nato base.
The drones forced Warsaw to shoot them down and trigger Nato Article 4, one below the threshold of war.
The Polish site the drones are thought to have been targetting is providing military supplies to Ukraine, German newspaper Die Welt reported.
According to Zelensky, the swooping drones were a “test” by Russia to see how Nato allies would respond.
Poland’s Prime Minster Donald Tusk said the move took his country to the “closest to conflict since WW2”.
Netherlands Defence Minister Ruben Brekelmans told the Journal that it had assessed that “Russia will be able to move large amounts of troops within one year”.
“We see that they are already increasing their strategic inventories, and are expanding their presence and assets along the Nato borders”, he added.
The wargame was carried out by the German Wargaming Center of the Helmut-Schmidt University of the German Armed Forces and newspaper Die Welt.
