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Team USA is in a precarious position after their stunning 8-6 loss to Team Italy in their final game of pool play on Tuesday at Daikin Park: They no longer control their own destiny in the World Baseball Classic.
Italy improved to 3-0 with the victory, while the U.S. dropped to 3-1. While Italy and the U.S. both have three wins, Team Mexico is 2-1, and they play Italy on Wednesday.
If Italy beats Mexico, they would improve to 4-0 in pool play, and Mexico would drop to 2-2. In that scenario, Team USA would be the runner-up in Pool B and advance with Italy to the quarterfinal round.
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United States right fielder Aaron Judge (99) walks back to the dugout after striking out against Italy to end the ninth inning at Daikin Park in Houston, Texas, on March 10, 2026. (Thomas Shea/Imagn Images)
However, if Mexico defeats Italy on Wednesday, the U.S., Italy and Mexico would all be 3-1. In that scenario, Team USA could end up being the odd man out. If Mexico defeats Italy, they are guaranteed to move on, leaving the final spot between Team USA and Italy.
The initial tiebreaker is based on runs allowed divided by defensive outs recorded in the games between the three teams. Not all games are nine innings in the World Baseball Classic, as there are mercy rules.
If a team is winning by 15 runs after five innings or 10 runs after seven innings, the game ends. The mercy rule is only in effect for pool play and quarterfinal games.
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Italy pitcher Greg Weissert, right, celebrates with catcher J.J. D’Orazio (28) after defeating the United States in a World Baseball Classic game, Tuesday, March 10, 2026, in Houston. (Ashley Landis/AP Photo)
On the flip side, extra-inning games can change the calculus as well.
Because Mexico has allowed fewer runs than Italy in pool play, they are guaranteed to move on if they beat Italy on Wednesday.
If Mexico wins, the only way the United States could advance would be if Italy yielded more than five runs in their loss, assuming the game is just nine innings.
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United States center fielder Pete Crow-Armstrong (4) hits a home run against Italy in the seventh inning of a World Baseball Classic game in Houston, Texas, on March 10, 2026. (Ashley Landis/AP Photo)
Italy can lose and still move on if they give up four or fewer runs to Mexico in the loss.
Mexico and Italy play at 7 p.m. ET on FS1, and Team USA will be watching with bated breath.
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