With October’s final weekend here, the initial College Football Playoff rankings loom. The field of contenders will begin to narrow in the coming Saturdays.
Expect some earth-shattering upsets to shape and reshape the bracket over the next month, perhaps beginning Saturday. However, Week 9 should play out well for still-undefeated teams, including one that hits the road as an underdog in the Big 12.
BYU ML +105 at UCF, FanDuel
Undefeated BYU faces a potential trap game, traveling across the country to visit a desperate UCF. The Cougars are 2.5-point underdogs, but that translates to value in taking BYU as a straight-up winner.
UCF is on a four-game losing streak in Week 9. The good news for the Knights is that they have cut down the margin of victory from loss to loss, most recently taking Iowa State to the wire in a 38-35 decision. The bad news for UCF is that, despite playing its best offensive game since the season’s opening weeks, it still struggled to pass.
The BYU defense has been opportunistic against the pass, collecting almost twice as many interceptions (12) as touchdowns allowed (seven). Look for the Cougars’ defense to sell out against the run and dare UCF to put the ball in the air, which could lead to takeaway opportunities that BYU can leverage into a road win.
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Indiana -6 vs. Washington, DraftKings; Caesar Sportsbook
Undefeated Indiana has not just been beating opponents; the Hoosiers have been dominating them, with last week’s 56-7 dismantling of Nebraska marking the seventh double-digit margin of victory in seven outings.
Indiana has also covered the spread in all seven of those games, thanks to the nation’s highest-scoring offense (48.7 points per game). The absence of quarterback Kurtis Rourke from the lineup against Washington might threaten the effectiveness of the Hoosiers’ attack, but don’t count on it.
Tayven Jackson went 7-8 and threw two touchdowns in IU’s rout of Nebraska. He is supported by a capable rotation of running backs who have supplemented Rourke’s production, with Ty Son Lawton, Justice Ellison, and Kaelon Black all averaging at least 5.2 yards per carry.
Jackson will still be throwing to the same deep receiving corps, including Elijah Sarratt, Miles Cross, Ke’Shawn Williams, and Omar Cooper Jr., all of whom are threats. While Washington held each of its first six opponents to 24 points or fewer, it was exposed for 5.9 yards per carry and 13.5 yards per completion in a 40-16 blowout loss at Iowa, revealing exploitable weaknesses in the Huskies’ defense.
Curt Cignetti has not shied away from making statements in his first year at Indiana. Expect the Hoosiers to make a big statement and easily cover the spread against an opponent that reached the Playoff last season.
For those feeling especially confident in Jackson — and you have reason to — DraftKings also offers +330 odds on him throwing three or more touchdown passes. Washington’s pass defense is ranked tops in the nation and has allowed only five scores, but the Huskies have faced some of the weakest passing offenses in college football.
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Cam Ward +182 for 350+ Passing Yards, FanDuel
You know the clichés that apply to rivalry games and mismatched records. However, with undefeated Miami clicking as it heads into its matchup against Florida State, and the Seminoles continuing to slump, the Hurricanes look poised to roll.
As it has all season, Miami’s success is tied to the explosive playmaking of quarterback Cam Ward. The nation’s leading passer at 362.6 yards per game, he needs only to produce around his average to hit on this prop.
For all its issues, Florida State’s passing defense has held opponents to 198 yards per game. However, Ward has picked apart every defense he’s faced, including going for more than 400 yards against a Cal team that limited its three opponents before facing Miami to 177 yards or fewer through the air.
FanDuel also offers +270 odds on Ward throwing for four or more touchdowns, a benchmark he has reached in three of the last five games.
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