House Republicans are charging into Election Day with high hopes of padding their majority in the next Congress.
The fight to control the lower chamber remains too close to call in the final sprint to Nov. 5 — and campaign operatives in both parties acknowledge the 11th-hour uncertainty.
Republicans got a small boost from state redistricting, which is expected to net them one additional House seat next year. And they’re also encouraged by a map where five of the most vulnerable incumbent Democrats represent districts carried by former President Trump in 2020. Trump lost that contest, but with him back at the top of the ballot — and making gains among Black, Hispanic and male voters — Republicans feel confident they’ll have better luck seizing those seats this time around.
The extra cushion would be a welcome development for GOP leaders who have struggled, with a razor thin majority, to unite the warring factions of their conference in order to pass even the most basic legislation.
Here are seven Democratic districts where Republicans think they have the best shot at gaining ground on Nov. 5.
Ohio’s 9th District: Marcy Kaptur
Rep. Marcy Kaptur (D-Ohio), in her 42nd year in the House, is an institution on Capitol Hill and the longest-serving woman in congressional history. Republicans see a unique opportunity to end that streak this year.
Not only did Trump carry the district by 2.9 points in 2020, but GOP legislatures made the district slightly more red in the redistricting process that was approved last year. On top of that, Trump’s running mate this time around is JD Vance, Ohio’s junior senator.
That combination, according to GOP strategists, should lend a boost to Kaptur’s challenger, Ohio state Rep. Derek Merrin, 38, who is running on a message focused heavily on the economy under President Biden.
“It is a toss-up race; it is neck-and-neck. And Trump — he’s obviously going to help us there. It’s a Trump district, and he’s probably going to win it by a larger margin [this year],” a House GOP strategist said. “Vance being on the ticket helps us, as well.”
They have an uphill climb.
Election forecasters at both the Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball say the race “leans” in Kaptur’s favor.
Kaptur has outpaced Merrin in fundraising, bringing in $1.3 million in the third quarter of 2024 to $610,336 for Merrin. And Kaptur entered October with a much larger war chest of $1.7 million to just $430,937 for Merrin.
Outside PAC spending in the race, though, has favored Merrin. According to OpenSecrets, $7.2 million has been spent either to support Merrin or oppose Kaptur, compared to $6.2 million supporting Kaptur or opposing Merrin. That includes $3.9 million in spending from the Congressional Leadership Fund, the super PAC aligned with House GOP leadership. Elon Musk’s America PAC is also spending in the race.
Pennsylvania’s 8th District: Matt Cartwright
When Vice President Harris replaced Biden at the top of the ticket in July, it gave a boost to down-ballot Democrats in a vast majority of districts around the country. Pennsylvania’s 8th might be one of the exceptions.
The region includes Scranton, Biden’s hometown, and Republicans are hoping the shift to Harris will be a drag on Rep. Matt Cartwright, the six-term Democrat who is fighting for his political life in a district Trump won by 2.9 points four years ago.
“It’s incredibly beneficial that Joe Biden isn’t on the ballot there,” the GOP strategist said.
Challenging Cartwright is Republican Rob Bresnahan, a local businessman who’s focused on cost-of-living and border security concerns in the blue-collar district.
“We’ve had some trouble in the past because our candidates in that district were kind of labeled as Washington — and in a lot of ways they were. But he’s somebody who was born in the district,” the strategist said. “He has, not only some dirt under his fingernails, but the local ties that we think really helps us.”
Cartwright has the clear cash advantage, raising $2.17 million in the third quarter and entering October with $1.9 million in his war chest. Bresnahan raised $1.16 million in the same span and entered October with just $464,034.
Still, outside spending has helped Republicans close the gap. The Congressional Leadership Fund has poured nearly $5 million into the race on behalf of Bresnahan, versus almost $4 million for Cartwright from the House Majority PAC, which is associated with Democratic leadership.
Maine’s 2nd District: Jared Golden
Rep. Jared Golden (D-Maine) is well known for his independent streak, voting against his party on high-profile issues like energy policy, student loan forgiveness and police reform during his six years on Capitol Hill. That’s done nothing to satiate the desire of Republicans to make him a prime target.
Trump won the district by 6.1 points in 2020, and GOP operatives think challenger Austin Theriault, a 30-year-old state representative and former NASCAR driver, will speak to voters in one of the most rural — and most white — districts in the country.
They’re pointing to a late infusion of cash from the House Majority PAC as evidence Democrats are on the ropes. And a new internal poll from the House Republicans’ campaign arm has fueled their optimism. The survey found Theriault up two points, while Golden’s support among independent voters has fallen from 54 percent to 36 percent since the start of October.
“Independents are cratering for him,” the GOP strategist said.
Golden, a retired Marine who served in both Iraq and Afghanistan, is accustomed to surviving tough challenges. He raised $1.8 million in the third quarter, entering October with $1.6 million in cash on hand, almost double the figures posted by Theriault.
But outside spending has favored Theriault, as groups have poured millions of dollars into the race — $9.4 million for the GOP challenger, versus $6.4 million for the Democratic incumbent — making the contest one of the most expensive in the country.
Alaska At-large: Mary Peltola
Alaska is Trump country: the former president ran away with the state in 2020, besting Biden by more than 10 points. And Republicans are betting his return to the top of the ticket will be enough to oust Rep. Mary Peltola (D-Alaska) and win back a seat that GOP Rep. Don Young held for almost 50 years.
Alaska is among the few states in the country with a ranked-choice election system. That, according to Republican campaign operatives, will only help their candidate, Nick Begich, the scion of a Democratic political family who’s crossed the aisle and won Trump’s endorsement.
Begich lost to Peltola in 2022, but Republicans say their internal polls forecast a different outcome this time around.
“We’re getting over 47 percent on that first ballot. … And on the second ballot, Begich gets over 50 percent. So we’re in a great spot there,” said the GOP strategist. “It’s a Trump +10 state, and this is actually a situation where ranked-choice voting is working in our favor.”
Peltola, the first native Alaskan in congressional history, is aware of the challenge, seeking to distance herself from her party and build a brand as a bipartisan bridgemaker. She has bucked Democratic brass on key votes, tapped Young’s former chief of staff to head her office and declined to endorse Harris in the presidential contest.
Peltola has vastly outraised Begich, hauling in $3.9 million in the third quarter alone, versus $853,000 for her GOP challenger. But as in other battleground races, outside spending has blunted the Democrats’ advantage, with groups pouring $10.3 million on behalf of Peltola and $10.1 million in favor of Begich.
Washington’s 3rd District: Marie Gluesenkamp Perez
Republicans were stung in 2022, when Rep. Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (D-Wash.) defied the polls to defeat Republican Joe Kent in southwestern Washington, where Trump had won by more than 4 points in 2020. This year, Kent is back with Trump on the ballot.
The 3rd District abuts Oregon near Portland, a bastion of liberal politics that’s become a source of national controversy for its lenient positions on law enforcement and immigration — issues that churned national headlines during the COVID-19 pandemic. And Republicans are fighting to tie those controversies to any Democrats running in the region, including Gluesenkamp Perez.
“Everybody who lives there, they work in Portland, and it’s a referendum on Portland policies,” the Republican strategist said. “So you’re talking [about] crime and drugs, and a lot of that fits into the illegal immigration message. … Because the people who live across the river, they live across the river for a reason. And they don’t want that coming across.”
Branding Gluesenkamp Perez as a liberal “elitist,” however, won’t be easy. The first-term lawmaker is a former auto mechanic with deep blue-collar roots in the district. She co-chairs the centrist Blue Dog Coalition, and is a member of the bipartisan Problem Solvers Caucus. She has declined to say she’ll vote for Harris for president.
Kent, a former member of the Army Special Forces, has stirred controversy of his own, promoting conspiracy theories about Covid vaccines and false claims about the 2020 election being “stolen” from Trump. Still, he has won endorsements from the party brass, and Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) visited the district for a fundraiser in August, when he portrayed the race as a must-win for Republicans.
Money has poured into the race. Gluesenkamp Perez raised $3.6 million in the third quarter alone, and entered October with $1.3 million in cash on hand. Kent raised a quarter of that figure, $888,000, with $514,000 cash on hand.
Outside spending has also tilted toward the incumbent, with $7.9 million in outside cash favoring Gluesenkamp Perez, versus $4.7 million for Kent.
Colorado’s 8th District: Yadira Caraveo
If Republicans manage to defeat first-term Rep. Yadira Caraveo – Colorado’s first Latina member of Congress – they may attribute the success to voters’ concerns about crime and how immigration straining local services.
“The issues in this race all stem from the migrant crisis in Denver. I mean, they’ve had to slash city budgets …. That includes everything from fire, EMS, police to even school libraries. That is a very pertinent issue,” the GOP strategist said, also mentioning drug and homelessness issues in the city. “This is obviously kind of the suburbs of it, but a lot of people commute to go to work there.”
The relatively new district stretches from the northern suburbs of Denver to south of Fort Collins.
Biden had a 4.6 percent edge among voters inside the district lines by 4.6 in 2020, but Republicans saw the 2022 election as an indicator of Caraveo’s vulnerability. Caraveo did not cross the 50 percent mark in her narrow victory, and a libertarian candidate on the ballot got almost 4 percent of the vote. This year, there is no third party candidate on the ballot.
The Republican nominee, state Rep. Gabe Evans, is a former Army blackhawk helicopter pilot and a former police officer.
Democrats have out-raised and out-spent Republicans in the district, according to Open Secrets. Democratic-aligned groups have spent more than $12.2 million to either support Caraveo or oppose Evans, while Republican outside spending has reached almost $9.8 million to support Evans or oppose Caraveo. Democrats have heavily attacked Evans on abortion rights.
Rep. Suzan DelBene (D-Wash.), head of the Democrats’ campaign arm, recognized that Caraveo’s district is one that has been heavily targeted by Republicans.
“But we are invested, we have a great candidate, she’s doing a great job,” DelBene said earlier in the month. “When we get our message out, we win.”
Pennsylvania’s 7th District: Susan Wild
Rep. Susan Wild (D-Pa.) came to Congress as part of the “blue wave” in 2018, and Republicans hope that state Rep. Ryan Mackenzie – a Harvard Business School graduate – can achieve their goal of reclaiming the suburban seat outside Philadelphia that Biden barely won in 2020 by 0.6 percent, according to the Daily Kos.
“Wild’s obviously an entrenched incumbent [and] she’s had a massive fundraising advantage. But this is the type of race where we see it neck-and-neck in the polls right now,” the GOP strategist said of the race.
The money is certainly on Wild’s side. She vastly out-raised her challenger in the third quarter of this year, bringing in $2.6 million to $586,836 for Mackenzie.
Outside spending is pouring in on Wild’s side, too, with PACs spending $12.1 million to support Wild or oppose Makenzie, versus $7.6 million to oppose Wild or support her challenger.
One recent ad attacking Wild from Congressional Leadership Fund puts the focus on immigration and border issues, highlighting her vote against the House GOP’s border bill. Democrats, meanwhile, have hit Mackenzie on his record on reproductive rights.
With Pennsylvania being one of the most important swing states in the presidential election, the outcome at the top of the ticket will be a major factor in the race.
“A top-of-the-ticket headwind for Kamala could really doom Wild, and Trump could push our guy, Brian MaKenzie over the edge,” the GOP strategist said.
