NEW YORK – A potential low-pressure system setting up off the East Coast could spell trouble for Halloween in the mid-Atlantic and Northeast as computer forecast models show a wicked forecast with rainy conditions for millions.
FILE – A person holds an umbrella as they walk under the rain in a street of the Manhattan borough of New York City. (Photo by CHARLY TRIBALLEAU/AFP via Getty Images)
(Getty Images)
Impacts from this potential system could include heavy rain and strong winds from mid- to late-week, but where the biggest impacts play out remains to be determined.
Coastal low-pressure system setup.
(FOX Weather)
The first round of rain will arrive on Tuesday along the Southeast and mid-Atlantic coasts courtesy of the severe thunderstorms that caused power outages in Texas and prompted Tornado Warnings along the Gulf Coast over the weekend.
Once this system moves out, another is on its way. The third element to this potential Halloween storm is a strong ridge of high pressure building over eastern Canada. According to the FOX Forecast Center, if a low forms off the coastal Carolinas, early projections show it taking a ride up the East Coast and bringing messy impacts to the mid-Atlantic and Northeast later in the week.
Estimated rain outlook.
(FOX Weather)
FOX Weather Meteorologist Bayne Froney explains that where this system sets up will influence the impacts during the second half of the week. Right now, the timing is mainly between Wednesday and Friday (Halloween).
“Now we could see a low-pressure system setting up just off the coast of the Carolinas. Now, where this setup ends up kind of depends on this dip in the jet stream,” Froney said. “If this dip comes out a little bit farther into the ocean off the coast, it may not be too much of an issue for us. It may just be kind of impacting areas up towards Canada. But if it sets up a little bit closer to the coast, then we may be having a little bit more of an issue, as we have that low-pressure system setting up and then drifting up to the Northeast.”
Euro vs. GFS models are in agreement that rain is coming for the mid-Atlantic.
(FOX Weather)
The Euro and GFS models are already showing some consensus of rain from the Carolinas to New York on Thursday and Friday.
It’s still early to say how much rain will fall by the end of the week, but the forecast should come into focus over the next few days.
“We’re going to be keeping up with this forecast as we continue to move throughout the week, and we get a little of a better idea of exactly how much rain we could end up seeing and where we might end up seeing it as well,” Froney said.
