Two months ago, former President Donald Trump was on track to secure what appeared to be a sure victory against a teetering Joe Biden. Today, according to polls and pundits, the presidential race is a statistical tie against Vice President Kamala Harris.
This is a change that few saw coming, except perhaps Harris herself, who has become a fast and formidable contender.
Following successful Democratic National Convention and a solid CNN interview, Harris’s chances appear to be real. Judging by the coverage and the crowds, it is a scenario that growing numbers of Americans have come to embrace.
This turn of events has spurred corporations, trade associations and groups like the U.S. Chamber and Business Roundtable to re-think their erstwhile plans and draft “what-if” scenarios for America under Kamala Harris. Her more populist positions have many industries bracing for a less-than-friendly business environment and exploring ways to align their own views with hers.
With billions at stake, contingency plans are being reviewed, revised and re-cast to accommodate a different direction. Forward-looking companies are considering everything from who will lead their Washington office to who will carry their water on Capitol Hill.
At the same time, speculation abounds as to which government policies and people will guide the next chapter of American history. The media have already begun to predict Cabinet positions and senior advisers based on current campaign roles — an exercise made more relevant by the advancement of Project 2025 by prominent Republicans.
It is anyone’s guess at this point, but the neck-and-neck race has not dampened the fervor of Big Business to play the game. That means putting millions into campaigns and issue advertising and surrogates pressing their views on key issues such as trade, taxes, energy and the environment.
To be sure, this is not a simple transition, and there is a high level of angst. Companies know all too well that former President Trump can be unforgiving to those deemed disloyal.
Corporate America pines for more clarity on the policies that Harris will pursue, especially government regulation, where she could prove to be more activist than Biden. Markets and investors thrive on certainty, if not the status quo. At this juncture, Harris promises neither.
Guided by consumer mandates and macroeconomic change, Harris has previewed a populist agenda that would be heavy on enforcement and compliance and light on corporate accommodation. The implications for energy, oil and gas, banking, finance, telecom and technology companies could be daunting if they do not fall in line.
But corporations are nothing if not pragmatic, which explains how they slide so adroitly from one side of the aisle to the other when the political winds change. We can bet that once the ballots are counted, Big Business will have deftly pivoted toward the center of power, whether under Harris or Trump. Led by their industry trade associations, major corporations know exactly how to maximize the moment and move ahead of the competition.
For seasoned Washington hands, the executive branch transition is a quadrennial event, not unlike the Olympics. It is an event in which fates and fortunes can be made and lost, a time when opportunities and openings abound both inside and outside of government.
The jockeying for position has already begun in earnest. Retiring members of Congress and congressional staffers are champing at the bit for a chance to move over, move up or cash out. And Hill veterans of every stripe have been training in the off years, bolstering their bona fides for such a time as this.
On K Street, the resume review for those with ties to Harris or her running mate, Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz, is in high gear. Inside-the-Beltway recruiters are drafting new position descriptions for plum government affairs jobs. Law firms and lobbying shops are measuring who in their ranks have the right reach and relationships. Perception can be as valuable as reality.
Despite a surfeit of available talent, it is important for business to choose the right leaders to navigate the changing policy environment and a closely divided Congress. With shifting political winds come new expectations, campaign contributions, policy adjustments and personnel changes.
Whatever the cost, it is all a part of doing business in Washington. The most powerful and profitable companies play by their own set of rules. There are no permanent friends, no permanent enemies, only permanent interests — especially when it comes to betting on a new administration.
Adonis Hoffman writes on business, law and policy. He previously served in senior legal roles in the U.S. House of Representatives, at the FCC, and as adjunct professor at Georgetown University.
