A splash of auteurish openings on Christmas Day with Focus Features’ Nosferatu, Searchlight’s A Complete Unknown, A24’s naughty Babygirl and Rachel Morrison’s The Fire Inside is poised to send the Christmas week’s box office to a potential $280M tally, on par with last year’s holiday week which was boosted by Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom, Wonka, Migration and The Color Purple.
Christmas week 2021 holds the post Covid era record for the most made by movies with $292.4M during that time; a majority of that from Sony/Marvel Studios’ Spider-Man: No Way Home.
Still, it’s interesting. Even though there isn’t a massive, all-oxygen sucking tentpole in the marketplace, the heavy supply of family titles in Sonic the Hedgehog 3, Mufasa, Wicked and Moana 2 plus the new offerings are making for a lucrative season. Comscore projects we’ll end 2024 at $8.75 billion, just -3% shy of 2023’s $9 billion tally. Nothing to complain about especially in a domestic box office year that was still rattled by the aftermath of the previous year strikes: We went from a domestic marketplace that was dogging 2023 by -20% before summer to just being a few points behind.
While Christmas Eve business today can ease anywhere from -20% to -40% off Monday’s $30.7M total for all films, Christmas Day’s daily box office can surge well over 100%.
(L-R) ‘Mufasa: The Lion King’ and ‘Sonic the Hedgehog 3’
Everett Collection
Paramount’s Sonic the Hedgehog 3 will remain the alpha male gorilla at the box office over Disney’s Mufasa, respectively with a $50M+ 5-day to $40M+ 5-day. Thanksgiving female skewing holdovers, Universal’s Wicked and Disney’s Moana 2 are eyeing $20M+ a piece over the Wednesday to Sunday frame. As we mentioned earlier, Wicked will become the 6th Universal movie ever at the domestic box office to pass the $400M mark at some point this week.
Three of the holiday adult offerings are R-rated; Amazon MGM Studios’ The Fire Inside being the sole PG-13 release.
Focus Features’ Robert Eggers gothic horror vampire movie Nosferatu is expected to deliver $25M over the Christmas 5-day at 2,600 theaters. That’s bound to be the director’s best opening of all-time, ahead of the first 5-day take of his previous Focus movie, the Viking epic, The Northman which did $14.6M. His latest cost under $50M before P&A. The Northman pulled in 61% 18-34 and 68% men. Expect a similar turnout here for the Lily-Rose Depp, Nicholas Hoult, Bill Skargard and Aaron Taylor-Johnson movie. Previews start today at 7PM. Rotten Tomatoes reviews are at 87% certified fresh.
Searchlight’s $60M-$70M James Mangold directed Bob Dylan biopic A Complete Unknown starring Timothee Chalamet, Edward Norton, Elle Fanning and Monica Barbaro is eyeing $15M+ over five days with great potential for upside at 2,500 theaters. Previews start at 2PM today. Mangold’s Johnny Cash and June Carter Cash biopic, Walk the Line, opened in the pre-Thanksgiving period in 2005 to $22.3M. It would be great to see an adult drama such as this to break out at the box office at a time when audiences are hooked on streaming. Keep in mind Bob Dylan, despite his legendary status, can be niche next to such music icons at the cinema, Elvis ($31.2M opening) and Elton John (Rocketman bowed to $25.7M in May 2019). The previous movie about Bob Dylan was the absurdist Todd Haynes directed I’m Not There which featured several actors (Christian Bale, Heath Ledger, Cate Blanchett) playing the folk crooner. That Weinstein Co. arthouse release only made $4M in its total U.S. Canada run. A Complete Unknown is aimed at a much broader audience. RT reviews are at 78% certified fresh.
© A24 / Courtesy Everett Collection
For those looking for a mind-blowing date film, or for those who haven’t had their fill of mistletoe, there’s the Fifty Shades of Grey-like Babygirl from Halina Reijn at 2,100 theaters with an eye at $7M over five-days. Why is it here? There’s always room at Christmas for an edgy movie, i.e. A24’s Uncut Gems which did $9.5M in its Christmas wide break at 2,348 theaters. Babygirl, stars Nicole Kidman as a higher-powered CEO who has an affair with a lower subordinate played by Harris Dickinson. Let’s just leave it at that. Let’s not even get into the whole dish of milk. No previews today. Critics enjoyed the movie at 81% certified fresh. Last year, A24 had the tragic-themed wrestling movie The Iron Claw which did $8.5M in its first five days at the box office.
Ryan Destiny in ‘The Fire Inside’
Amazon MGM Studios
Barry Jenkins has another movie this weekend aside from Mufasa, and that’s The Fire Inside, which he wrote. Morrison, who was the Oscar nominated DP on Mudbound, as well as Black Panther, directed this inspirational true story of female boxer Claressa Shields (Ryan Destiny). As a high school Junior from Flint, Michigan, she is aided by her tough-love coach, Jason Crutchfield (Brian Tyree Henry), to become the first American woman to win an Olympic gold medal in boxing. Booked at 2000 theaters, the sports movie is looking at mid-single digits over the Wednesday-Sunday span. Previews start today at 2PM.
