The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) says atmospheric and oceanic conditions are continuing to favor what could be an above-average 2025 Atlantic hurricane season as we inch closer to its September peak.
NOAA had predicted back in May that we could be facing an active season, and according to its latest outlook, it appears that we’re still on track for that to possibly happen.
This graphic shows the current 2025 Atlantic hurricane season outlook numbers fro NOAA.
(FOX Weather)
Forecasters said the National Weather Service updated the number of expected named storms, with winds of 39 mph or higher, to 13 to 18.
Of those, five to nine could become hurricanes, with winds of 74 mph or higher, including two to five major hurricanes, with winds of 111 mph or higher.
“The adjusted ranges are for the entire season from June 1 through November 30, and are inclusive of the four named tropical storms that have already formed,” NOAA said in its update. “In the Atlantic basin, a typical hurricane season will yield 14 named storms, of which seven become hurricanes and three become major hurricanes.”
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Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale and damage.
(FOX Weather)
According to NOAA, the likelihood of above-average activity is 50%, with a 35% chance of a near-average season and a 15% chance of a below-average season.
“NOAA stands ready to provide the forecasts and warnings that are vital for safeguarding lives, property, and communities,” Acting NOAA Administrator Laura Grimm said in the update. “As we enter the second half of the season, this updated hurricane outlook serves as a call to action to prepare now, in advance, rather than delay until a warning is issued.”
So far, the 2025 season has produced four tropical storms (Andrea, Barry, Chantal and Dexter) and no hurricanes.
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FOX Weather Hurricane Expert Bryan Norcross takes viewer questions about the ongoing hurricane season.
NOAA said tropical activity in the Atlantic Basin is expected to be elevated due to a number of factors, including warmer-than-average ocean surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic and Caribbean, and an active West African monsoon.
ENSO-neutral conditions are also expected to continue, meaning there is neither an El Niño nor La Niña available to influence the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season’s activity.
The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 to Nov. 30, and the statistical peak occurs on Sept. 10.
