Vice President Harris has taken the lead in pollster Nate Silver’s election forecast and model for the first time since Aug. 28.
Harris now leads in the polling aggregation with 48.9 percent to Trump’s 46.1 percent.
Silver in a story noting the shift emphasized how tight the race is between Harris and Trump. This is the third time the leader has changed in the race, something that could happen again given how close it is.
“Today marks the 3rd time so far in the election that the streams have crossed in the forecast — Harris is technically the favorite in the model for the first time since Aug. 28 — but the race is a toss-up and that will happen a lot when the forecast is so close to 50/50,” Silver’s Silver Bulletin site stated.
Silver’s model shows that even after the presidential debate, which was widely seen as a win for Harris, neither candidate lost nor gained much support.
Harris saw a bump around Aug. 23, just after the Democratic National Convention wrapped in Chicago and she officially became the party’s nominee.
Silver’s model examines the key swing states. It found Harris leading in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan, Nevada and Minnesota. Trump leads in North Carolina, Georgia and Arizona.
The recent information from Silver backs up his past claim. In late August, he argued that if Harris could keep up her momentum for a “couple” more weeks, she would be on track to take the lead.
According to The Hill/Decision Desk HQ’s poll aggregation, Harris has a 3.6 percent lead over Trump nationally.
Silver wrote that neither side should take much confidence and that “stranger things have happened than a candidate who was behind in the polls winning.”
