In today’s issue:
- White House rivals raise stakes in final weeks
- Israelis reflect on anniversary of Hamas attacks
- Issues to watch as new Supreme Court term begins
- The border statistics at the center of debate
Harris, Trump grind out ‘scary close’ contest
Election Day is 29 days away and polls continue to suggest a breathtakingly close race nationally and a margin-of-error contest in key states in which Vice President Harris and former President Trump fly in and out, spend campaign ad money and focus their rhetorical appeals during rallies and interviews.
Yes, interviews. Harris played it safe for most of her campaign by sidestepping high-profile sit-downs with the press, a trend she’s adjusting this week with a CBS News “60 Minutes” prime time interview tonight and other broadcast and podcast appearances aimed at pinpointing potential undecided voters wherever they may get their information.
Trump, eyeing Latino voters who may favor his economic pitch for another term, will be interviewed Tuesday on Univision and Harris will follow on that network Thursday.
The vice president has a small lead nationwide. She’s ahead of Trump by 3.4 points in the average of polls maintained by The Hill/Decision Desk HQ (DDHQ).
Of the seven battleground states likely to decide the election, Harris leads in four and Trump in three. But neither candidate is ahead in any of the critical states by more than 2 percentage points. In five of the states, the margin for the leading candidate is less than 1 point.
California Senate candidate Rep. Adam Schiff (D), who is comfortably leading in polls in his own race, told NBC News’s “Meet the Press” Sunday that the presidential contest remains “scary close,” adding he’s “optimistic about the outcome” for Harris.
BOB’S SMART TAKE
Following the 2022 midterms, it was clear that the White House, the House and the Senate would be up for grabs in 2024.
There is less than a month to go and either party could win all three. It’s that close. Decision Desk HQ, an election partner with The Hill, projects Vice President Harris has a 54 percent chance of winning while the GOP has a 71 percent chance of taking the Senate and 56 percent chance of keeping the House.
The good news for Republicans is that the Senate map is very friendly as Democrats have to basically win every close race to retain the upper chamber. The good news for Democrats is that they have a significant money advantage in the battle for the House.
What is most likely to happen? Divided government. And even if one party gets the trifecta of the White House and both chambers of Congress, it’s a safe bet that the margins on Capitol Hill next year will be small. That will test congressional leaders as well as the new commander-in-chief.
ONCE RELIABLE DEMOCRATIC VOTING BLOCS: Harris knows unionized blue-collar workers could make the difference for her in Michigan and Pennsylvania. Polls show the vice president significantly underperforming Biden’s 2020 showing among white male non-college educated union workers. Many rank and file male organized labor members, as was the case in 2016, indicate they’re more inclined to back Trump and willing to defy the union bosses who support Harris.
▪ CNN: Harris tries to secure labor support among signs of weakening, although she has mostly kept together a coalition of unions that traditionally back a Democratic presidential nominee.
▪ The Hill: Young Black voters say they’re excited to show up to vote for Harris.
▪ The Hill: Harris sees warning signs among Arab American and Muslim voters in key swing states.
The International Brotherhood of Teamsters and the International Association of Fire Fighters declined to endorse presidential candidates this cycle, despite Harris’s efforts to capture their backing. However, the Arizona International Brotherhood of Teamsters Local Union 104,representing more than 9,600 members in swing state Arizona, endorsed Harris Friday. Harris’s standing among union workers in Arizona and Nevada, important to the campaign’s Election Day ground operation, is seen as strong.
A list of unions that back the Democratic presidential ticket as of September is HERE.
3 THINGS TO KNOW TODAY
▪Hurricane Milton, now a Category 2 cyclone, is expected to slam Florida’s Gulf Coast and the already battered Tampa Bay region by midweek. It is moving this morning with winds up to 100 mph. “Storm surge will be piled into the coast” by the slowly strengthening storm, CBS reports. Florida mandatory evacuation orders (listed HERE and HERE) in some areas take effect today and will continue.
▪ In North Carolina and other states, officials and disaster responders decry conspiracy theories and false claims about ongoing Hurricane Helene relief. Meanwhile, President Biden Sunday mobilized another 500 active duty troops to assist the state.
▪ Wars, a refugee crisis, famine and artificial intelligence could all be recognized with Nobel Prize announcements that began this morning amid global conflicts and worldwide uncertainties. The Nobel Peace Prize will be awarded Friday. The medicine prize was awarded this morning for the discovery of microRNA gene regulation.
LEADING THE DAY
© The Associated Press / Markus Schreiber
IT’S THE FIRST ANNIVERSARY of Hamas’s attacks on Israel, during which 1,200 people were killed and around 250 people held hostage, sparking a war that now threatens to spill over into the wider region. Israel’s war against Hamas in Gaza has claimed more than 40,000 lives in the enclave, where most of the population is internally displaced and dozens of hostages remain. Israel is now also fighting the Lebanese militant group Hezbollah, and bracing for a counterattack from Iran after an Israeli airstrike killed a Hezbollah commander in Tehran.
Israeli airstrikes in Gaza on Sunday targeted a mosque and a school turned shelter, the military said, as it reopened an offensive in northern Gaza to combat militants who have resurfaced in the area. The military said two of its armored brigades encircled part of Jabalia, a longtime Hamas stronghold in northern Gaza (The Wall Street Journal and The New York Times).
▪ The Washington Post: Israelis, still at war, paused today to remember the attacks of one year ago.
▪ The Wall Street Journal: One year after the Hamas attack that ended Israel’s two-decade golden age of relative peace, the country is now firmly on the counterattack and preparing to be at war for years.
Despite rising tensions, talks appeared to be heading in the right direction in late September for a breakthrough in Middle East peacemaking. Officials from the United Nations, France and the U.S. released a statement calling for a three-week cease-fire between Israel and Hezbollah. It failed, due in part to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s insistence that Israel must “defeat Hezbollah in Lebanon,” and now the expanded war is raging — and threatening to ignite a larger regional conflict.
In her “60 Minutes” interview, set to air today, Harris was pressed on Washington’s support for Netanyahu. The U.S. has spent a record of at least $17.9 billion on military aid to Israel since the war in Gaza began.
“We supply Israel with billions of dollars in military aid,” interviewer Bill Whitaker said. “And yet, Prime Minister Netanyahu seems to be charting his own course. The Biden-Harris administration has pressed him to agree to a cease-fire. [He’s] resisted. You urged him not to go into Lebanon. He went in anyway. He has promised to make Iran pay for the missile attack, and that has the potential of expanding the war. Does the U.S. have no sway over Prime Minister Netanyahu?”
Harris replied that the aid the U.S. provided Israel allowed the country “to defend itself against 200 ballistic missiles that were just meant to attack the Israelis and the people of Israel.”
“Now, the work that we do diplomatically, with the leadership of Israel, is an ongoing pursuit around making clear our principles, which include the need for humanitarian aid, the need for this war to end, the need for a deal to be done, which would release the hostages and create a cease-fire,” Harris added. “And we’re not gonna stop in terms of putting that pressure on Israel and in the region, including Arab leaders.”
▪ Times of Israel: The U.S. Chief of Central Command met Sunday with Israeli military leaders about Iran and Lebanon.
▪ USA Today: Four Americans are still being held hostage in Gaza.
▪ The Hill: French President Emmanuel Macron on Saturday called for a halt in deliveries of arms used in Gaza to Israel, adding that France was not sending arms to Israel.
▪ The Washington Post: Israel has bombed much of Gaza to rubble. What would it take to rebuild?
▪ The Associated Press: Pro-Palestinian and pro-Israeli crowds rallied across the world on the eve of Oct. 7 anniversary.
DIVISIONS: Ahead of Oct. 7, The Hill talked to several Israelis and Israeli-Americans who shared their perspective on how their country has changed. Israelis remain divided on how to handle the war and they disagree on what a future and long-lasting peace should look like. But all report feelings of discontent and anxiety about the present and the future. Ben Linder, who was born in Israel but now lives in Palo Alto, Calif., said a “heinous, horrendous crime” was carried out by Hamas, but he argued it’s important to understand its context.
“The overwhelming anger has caused incredible division and polarization in the community, specifically around how to relate to the rights of both Israelis and Palestinians,” he said. “The sense of equality between the needs of both people has sort of disappeared.”
COLLEGES FACE A MAJOR TEST today as pro-Palestinian and pro-Israel students both plan events, The Hill’s Lexi Lonas Cochran reports. Campuses still stinging from last academic year’s protests will see demonstrations, vigils and movie screenings.
▪ Politico: The U.S. has increased its intelligence-gathering in Gaza since it was caught off guard on Oct. 7. But gaps remain on the very type of intelligence that could be essential to finding a path to ending the conflict.
▪ The Washington Post: Inside Mossad’s pager operation in Lebanon. New details emerge of Israel’s elaborate plan to sabotage Hezbollah communications devices to kill or maim thousands of its operatives.
WHERE AND WHEN
The House will convene a pro forma session Tuesday at 9 a.m. The Senate will hold a pro forma session Tuesday at 2:30 p.m.
The president and first lady Jill Biden at 11:45 a.m. in the Blue Room will mark one year since the Hamas attack on Israel,joined by a rabbi to participate in a yahrzeit candle lighting. Biden will receive the President’s Daily Brief at 12:15 p.m. The president at 1:45 p.m. will be briefed by advisers about the ongoing federal response to Hurricane Helene and preparations for Hurricane Milton.
The vice president and second gentleman Doug Emhoff at 4 p.m. will mark a year since the attacks on Israel with a tree planting on the ground’s of the vice president’s residence. Harris will speak. Harris will travel to New York City at 5 p.m. (Emhoff separately at 9 a.m. will attend the American Jewish Committee’s national Oct. 7 memorial commemoration in the nation’s capital.)
Candidate schedules this week: Harris today is in Washington, D.C., and tonight she heads to New York City. She will appear tonight on CBS’s prime time “60 Minutes” election special (a taped interview conducted Saturday). On Tuesday, Harris will be in New York City live on ABC’s “The View;” will visit “The Howard Stern Show;” and will appear on CBS’s “The Late Show.” On Wednesday, Harris heads to Las Vegas overnight to hold a campaign event there Thursday before traveling to Arizona. She’ll be in Arizona Friday before returning to Washington, D.C. Trump will campaign Wednesday at 3 p.m. in Scranton, Pa., and in Reading, Pa., at 7 p.m. Ohio GOP Sen. JD Vance will campaign Tuesday in Detroit at 2 p.m and in Johnstown, Pa., at 1 p.m. Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz (D) is out West for campaign fundraising and will appear tonight on ABC’s “Jimmy Kimmel Live.” He will travel to Seattle tonight to attend a Tuesday morning campaign reception there. Walz is expected to hold a rally in Reno, Nev. Tuesday and head to Sacramento, Calif., for a campaign reception and will meet with Gov. Gavin Newsom (D). Walz this week will do a series of Hispanic and local media interviews.
The White House daily press briefing is scheduled at 1:30 p.m.
ZOOM IN
© The Associated Press / Susan Walsh
THE SUPREME COURT returns to the bench today to start its new term, where battles over transgender rights, guns and adult website use are already brewing. So far, the court has agreed to review 43 appeals, with decisions expected by summer. Court watchers have called the upcoming term sleepier than others, though the justices are still poised to issue key rulings.
The Hill’s Ella Lee and Zach Schonfeld break down five big issues to watch for.
The New York Times: This term’s docket is fairly routine. That could change fast if the presidential race is contested.
MORE IN POLITICS
SENATE CONTROL: Republicans are looking to avoid a disaster in the Nebraska Senate race amid signs that an independent candidate could be giving Sen. Deb Fischer (R-Neb.) a run for her money. Independent Senate candidate and political newcomer Dan Osborn is challenging Fischer for her seat, writes The Hill’s Caroline Vakil, betting that Nebraskans are hungry for a nonpartisan senator in a state Trump won by close to 20 points in 2020. Despite Nebraska’s reliably red statewide political leanings, the dynamics of the race have shifted in recent weeks: Republican groups have started spending in the race and the nonpartisan election handicapper Cook Political Report last week shifted the race to “likely Republican,” underscoring that the GOP can’t take the Nebraska seat for granted.
Harris’s running mate, Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz (D), on Sunday responded to criticism of the false statements he made in the past, saying he “will own up” when he makes “a mistake.” During an appearance on “Fox News Sunday,” host Shannon Bream asked Walz: “What do you say to the American people who think, ‘I don’t know that I can trust this guy with all those modifications to be the potential commander in chief of this country?’”
“They know, and I’m very proud of my 24 years in service and my record; I have never disparaged someone else in this, but I know that’s not what Donald Trump does,” Walz said. “They disparage everyone, give personal attacks. I will own up when I misspeak; I will own up when I make a mistake.”
2024 ELECTION ROUNDUP
Hurricane Helene has thrown up new hurdles for voters and election officials in Georgia and North Carolina, threatening disruptions to the voting process in two of the most critical battleground states.
In storm-lashed Asheville, N.C., the Democratic Party’s robust campaign infrastructure ceased operations.
Pennsylvania is a must-win state for both Harris and Trump. It is also ground zero for litigation over election rules and skeptics who still question the legitimacy of the 2020 presidential election results.
The distribution of ad spending for Senate GOP candidates is highly lopsided, with a massive amount focused on Pennsylvania.
Former first lady Melania Trump’s decision to come out as a staunch supporter of reproductive rights could affect her husband’s anti-abortion image.
By invoking “freedom,” Harris is talking about firearms in a new way for a Democrat — and co-opting the language of Republicans.
From Washington to Massachusetts, blue states are rushing to protect their policy priorities from the reach of a potential second Trump administration.
ELSEWHERE
© The Associated Press / Matt York
IMMIGRATION AND BORDER CROSSING statistics are at the center of a national debate that lacks consensus on even the most basic facts. The Hill’s Rafael Bernal writes the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) publishes massive amounts of data both on immigration and on border enforcement, though some databases are kept under wraps. Last week, Rep. Tony Gonzales (R-Texas) drew attention to the Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) “non-detained docket,” one of the datasets that, for most people, is not just a few clicks away.
“I asked [acting ICE Director Patrick Lechleitner], one, how many criminal aliens are in this country?” Gonzales told The Hill. “What I mean by that, I’m not talking about your abuelita that came over years ago and may or may not be documented. I’m not talking about the guy that’s maybe building a house, or none of that, or [an] eight-year-old — I’m talking about convicted criminal aliens. That’s what I’m talking about. That was the number I asked him. At the time he goes, ‘Tony it’s a lot.’”
▪ The Washington Post: Immigration advocates keep quiet as Harris talks tough on the border. Activists are softening their criticism to help Harris win, setting the stage for a huge clash if she reaches the Oval Office.
▪ Axios: Both Trump and Harris are now pledging to impose some of the most restrictive immigration, asylum and border policies in decades.
OPINION
■ How bad are U.S. ports? The best is 53rd worldwide, by The Wall Street Journal editorial board.
■ My heart remains captive in Gaza, by Yaffa Adar, guest essayist, The New York Times.
THE CLOSER
© The Associated Press / Carolyn Kaster
And finally … 💤 Do you dream in color or black and white?
According to a 2017 study, participants reported color in nearly 50 percent of their dreams, compared to only 10 percent of the time for black and white dreaming. And for 40 percent of the dreams, participants could not recall whether there were any colors at all. But why?
One theory: the advent of color TV. Up until the 1950s, most people surveyed said they only occasionally, rarely or never dreamed in color. That’s since changed — especially among younger generations.
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