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In today’s issue:
- Harris campaigns as the underdog
- Trump trails by 1 point in new poll
- Where ticket-splitting could be key
- U.S. sends missile defenses to Israel
Vice President Harris insists she’s the underdog in the presidential race. This week, she’s campaigning that way.
Underdogs, when hemmed in, take risks. And sitting for a Fox News interview Wednesday for the first time as a candidate is an offensive play by the Democratic nominee, who decided to be heard on former President Trump’s safe-place turf. Not long ago, Harris sidestepped major media interviews while trying to goad her opponent into another televised debate. Trump said no.
The Democratic nominee is heeding advice to do “more of everything” to try to persuade undecided voters who may lean Republican but don’t favor Trump, and independent voters who say they know more about the ex-president than the vice president.
Harris’s Fox appearance with anchor Bret Baier is a bit of counterprogramming because Trump also will be heard on Fox during a town hall event airing Wednesday, to be taped in swing state Georgia today with a female-only audience.
He’ll also appear Wednesday during a live Univision town hall event from Miami, where immigration, the economy and the federal response to natural disasters are expected to be issues Trump will raise to pummel his opponent. The former president is on track to defeat Harris in Florida, according to polls.
Battleground-state surveys are essentially tied but suggest Trump is weathering the Harris campaign’s warnings to voters that he’s unfit to return to the presidency. Each nominee is making aggressive plays to win in the Electoral College, especially in “blue wall” states Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania.
Monday’s Trump’s town hall event in Oaks, Pa., ended with 39 minutes of music and bopping on stage by the former president following interruptions because of medical emergencies involving attendees. “Who the hell wants to hear questions, right?” he said.
Harris will campaign in the state today.
▪ NPR: In Erie, Pa., Monday, Harris brought a bit of Trump into her rally to try to show him as “unhinged.”
▪ The Hill: Trump edges out Harris with early voters in battleground states, polling suggests.
▪ The Hill’s Niall Stanage, The Memo: Harris will campaign multiple times this week in Michigan, the epicenter of anger over Israel, Gaza and Lebanon.
BOB’S SMART TAKE
In order to keep their slim Senate majority, Democrats will have to buck a big trend.
There were 69 Senate races in 2016 and 2020, and Sen. Susan Collins (R-Maine) was the only candidate who triumphed while the opposing party won the state at the presidential level.
Those are the tough odds facing Sens. Jon Tester (D-Mont.) and Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio), who are running in red states this fall. Both are strong candidates, have significant resources and have survived tough elections in the past. So they can win, but it won’t be easy.
There are also a handful of competitive Senate races in purple states that Democrats are defending including Arizona, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. They will have to win most — if not all — of these contests to control the Senate floor next year.
Democrats have defied the odds before, most recently in the 2022 midterms. However, this cycle is more daunting. Ticket-splitters exist, though they are not as prevalent as they used to be. Democrats need them this year.
3 THINGS TO KNOW TODAY
▪ NASA’s Europa Clipper space probe is en route to Jupiter and its moon via a circuitous path that will take five and a half years and 1.8 billion miles. It’s in search of life on other ocean worlds.
▪ Panda watch: The National Zoo in Washington is making a fuss over its renovated habitat for the impending arrival of giant pandas Qing Bao, a 3-year-old female, and Bao Li, a 3-year-old male. The bears are scheduled to arrive today.
▪ Want to save on holiday air fares? Today might be the unannounced threshold beyond which airline fares will rise daily as demand climbs, according to travel experts.
LEADING THE DAY
© The Associated Press | Julio Cortez
THE BATTLE FOR THE SENATE: Sen. Ted Cruz (R) may be at risk of losing his seat in Texas, as an internal polling memo from a GOP super PAC aiming to flip the Senate has suggested. The polling shows Cruz only 1 point ahead of Democratic challenger Rep. Colin Allred, who is raising substantially more money than Cruz. The tight race is one of the biggest surprises of the 2024 Senate contest, and Cruz vented his frustration with the Senate Leadership Fund, a super PAC aligned with Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (Ky.), for not spending any money in his competitive reelection race, accusing McConnell of using the group to “punish” his critics in the Senate GOP conference.
Asked if McConnell or the PAC had put any money into his increasingly close race against Allred, Cruz replied: “Not a penny.”
▪ The Wall Street Journal: Is Cruz blowing his reelection bid?
▪ Politico: The top GOP super PAC charged with flipping the Senate has found that most of its candidates are trailing their Democratic opponents.
IN ARIZONA, Rep. David Schweikert (R-Ariz.) is fighting for his political life in a key swing district, in what observers say will likely be the most competitive race of his years-long career. Schweikert, who has represented parts of Phoenix and Scottsdale for more than a decade and narrowly won reelection in 2022, is running against Democrat Amish Shah as he looks to secure his eighth term representing a bellwether district.
The Hill’s Filip Timotija writes Schweikert is looking to harness energy from having Trump at the top of the ticket this go-round, but some Republicans fear an abortion ballot measure, as well as the controversy surrounding Republican Senate candidate Kari Lake, could have a negative downballot effect and finally cost him his seat.
Business Insider: How Lake, one of MAGA’s brightest stars, went from unstoppable to a long shot.
2024 ELECTION ROUNDUP
Harris is leading Trump by 1 percentage point in the 2024 presidential election, according to a new Harvard CAPS/Harris poll released Monday.
That same poll shows a majority of Americans believe CBS should release a full transcript of its recent “60 Minutes” interview with Harris and think the network edited it to cast her in a favorable light. (Here’s some background about why there’s a controversy.)
There’s a divide between Republicans and Democrats when it comes to campaign food. The Washington Post analyzed campaign finance reports to reveal strikingly partisan preferences for various restaurants, with few more polarizing than McDonald’s.
Trump’s Republican allies have embarked on a sweeping effort to restrict voting and purge voter rolls across the country since the 2020 election, something critics fear could stymie participation in the November contest and aid Trump in challenging its outcome if he loses.
New Hampshire Republican congressional candidate Russell Prescott has long advocated against marriage rights for same-sex couples and once criticized a political opponent for believing “avowed homosexuals” should be allowed to become adoptive or foster parents.
The White House announced plans today to provide up to $750 million in direct funding to Wolfspeed, with the money supporting its new silicon carbide factory in North Carolina that makes the wafers used in advanced computer chips and its factory in Marcy, N.Y.
WHERE AND WHEN
The House will convene a pro forma session at 10 a.m. The Senate will hold a pro forma session at 1:30 p.m.
The president begins his day in Wilmington, Del., He will receive the President’s Daily Brief at 2:30 p.m. He will travel to Philadelphia to speak at 5:30 p.m. at a political event. Biden and first lady Jill Biden will depart Philadelphia together to arrive at the White House this evening.
The first lady separately will participate at 4:30 p.m. in a political event in Chester County, Pa. She will headline a 6 p.m. political event in Montgomery County, Pa., before joining the president.
Candidate schedules this week: Harris will be in Detroit today. She will join a radio town hall hosted by entertainer and author Charlamagne tha God and broadcast this evening. On Wednesday, she will campaign in Pennsylvania and be interviewed by Fox News anchor Bret Baier, to air at 6 p.m. ET. On Thursday, she’ll campaign in Milwaukee, La Crosse, Wis.; and Green Bay, Wis. On Friday, Harris will be in Grand Rapids, Mich.; Lansing, Mich.; and Oakland County, Mich. On Saturday, Harris will return to Detroit and Atlanta. Trump today will address the Economic Club of Chicago. He will campaign in Atlanta at 7:30 p.m. and tape a Fox News town hall event in Georgia with an entirely female audience, to broadcast Wednesday. On Wednesday, Trump will participate in a Univision town hall, rescheduled from earlier in the month because of Florida hurricanes. Also on Wednesday, Trump will hold a rally at 7 p.m. in Duluth, Ga. Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz todayis making multiple stops in Allegheny counties in Pennsylvania. Sen. JD Vance (R-Ohio) will headline two rallies Wednesday, the first in Williamsport, Pa., and the second in Wilmington, N.C.
ZOOM IN
© The Associated Press | Rebecca Blackwell
HURRICANES HELENE AND MILTON killed at least 225 people and destroyed not only coastal areas, but mountain towns like Asheville, N.C., some 500 miles from where the storm made landfall. In the aftermath, Biden pledged $612 million in aid for rebuilding efforts, but the storm’s destruction — alongside natural disasters like wildfires and tornadoes — is raising questions about the frequency and cost of environmental events in a country already facing massive fiscal challenges.
The South and West of the country, the places most exposed to fires, floods, hurricanes and extreme heat, are also places where Americans have been relocating in droves since the pandemic began.
In Florida, Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) said he was not inclined to prevent people from rebuilding in vulnerable areas.
“People work their whole lives to be able to live in environments that are really, really nice, and they have a right to make those decisions with their property as they see fit,” he told reporters. “It is not the role of government to forbid them or to force them to dispose or utilize their property in a way that they do not think is best for them.”
Meteorologists, meanwhile, have become the target of harassment for delivering the facts about weather patterns. Conspiracy theories and falsehoods have spiraled online after Hurricanes Helene and Milton, and some say threats directed at them have reached new levels.
“We’re all talking about how much more it’s ramped up,” Marshall Shepherd, the director of the University of Georgia’s atmospheric sciences program, told The New York Times, adding there has been “a palpable difference in tone and aggression toward people in my field.”
▪ Politico: Helene and Milton hitting just weeks apart is not moving the needle for most congressional Republicans when it comes to endorsing tougher action against climate change.
▪ NPR: Come hurricane or high water, Florida island residents promise to stay.
▪ The Washington Post: North Carolina authorities arrested armed man after threats against FEMA workers.
ELSEWHERE
© The Associated Press | Leo Correa
THE U.S. ANNOUNCED a major new air defense system for Israel this week, along with the deployment of 100 troops to operate it, in a development that will bolster Israeli security after Iran’s ballistic missile attack — but potentially put American forces at risk. The Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) is one of the most prized U.S. defense systems and is capable of taking out short, medium and intermediate-range ballistic missiles. It’s not clear when the THAAD will deploy in Israel, but its announcement comes as Israel is weighing a response to Iran, which may include a strike on Iranian nuclear and oil facilities that could in turn provoke another response from Tehran.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu told the Biden administration he is willing to strike military rather than oil or nuclear facilities in Iran, The Washington Post reports, suggesting a more limited counterstrike aimed at preventing a wider war. The pledges came in a call between Biden and Netanyahu last week.
Israel expanded its targets in its war with Hezbollah in Lebanon on Monday, killing at least 21 people in an airstrike in the north, health officials said. Meanwhile, Hezbollah’s weekend drone strike on an army base in northern Israel that killed four soldiers highlighted Israel’s vulnerability against attacks from unmanned aircraft.
▪ Politico: Germany insists it hasn’t cut off sales to Israel, but leaders blocked exports until assurances that arms would not be used against civilian targets.
▪ The Wall Street Journal: Canada has expelled six Indian diplomats, including India’s top official in the country, alleging the diplomats gathered intelligence on Sikh separatists who were then targeted for violence.
OPINION
■ Immigration skepticism goes mainstream in Europe, by The Wall Street Journal editorial board.
■ What China’s leaders grasp about another Trump term, by Rush Doshi, guest essayist, The New York Times.
THE CLOSER
© The Associated Press | Jeff Chiu
And finally … 🎃 The great pumpkin: What does it take to grow and harvest a gigantic, prize-winning specimen? The Half Moon Bay Pumpkin Weigh-off in California, sponsored by Safeway, presented growers a lucrative challenge for the 51st time Monday. On the line: $9 per pound for the first-place grower, plus other prizes. Many of the mammoth pumpkin entries exceed 2,000 pounds year after year. One gourd entered this season grew 58 pounds per day at one point.
Returning champion Travis Gienger, a Minnesota farmer, won his third consecutive contest Monday with a pumpkin weighing 2,471 pounds. Only in America, folks!
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