It was just last spring, in this very space, that we wrote these fateful words:
In recent years, the good old blockbuster spring training trade has become more rarified than a Myles Straw home run trot.
Ha. Good thing we added this important addendum: But maybe not this year.
That’s because you know what happened exactly 20 days later? A fellow named Dylan Cease got traded from the White Sox to the Padres. Apparently, the good old blockbuster spring training trade isn’t dead after all.
Now keep that in mind over these next few weeks, OK? We just finished conducting our annual spring preview survey of 32 executives, former executives, coaches and scouts. And you know what section was especially eye-opening?
The part where we asked our voters which players they thought were most likely to get traded this spring.
Usually, that question produces a sparse list of obvious salary dumps plus a handful of veteran players who are getting squeezed out by some dude on Keith Law’s Top 100 Prospects list. But that is not how it went this year.
In fact, we set a modern-day record, for this survey, by having 20 names dropped on us. Yep, 20. And we promise you’ve heard of every darned one of them.
So who are the players most likely to get traded? Let’s do this in two parts. First, here’s how the voting went, starting with the four big names at the top of the leaderboard.
Dylan Cease (Padres) — 12
Nolan Arenado (Cardinals) — 9
Luis Robert Jr. (White Sox) — 6
Jordan Montgomery (Diamondbacks) — 4
There were some other interesting names on the down-ballot, too. More on them later. But now, let’s dive into the guys who generated the most chatter.
Do the Padres have a Cease-and-Desist order coming?
Will Dylan Cease be traded two springs in a row? It’s now looking less likely. (Geoff Burke / Imagn Images)
It isn’t often that the same player wins the Most Likely to Get Traded balloting two years in a row. But that’s how valuable — and available — Cease has been through each of the past two offseasons.
And why wouldn’t he be? He’s still just 29, and eminently affordable (set to earn $13.75 million this year). Plus, you know how many pitchers in this sport have struck out more hitters than Cease over the past four seasons (891)? That would be zero.
But since most of this voting was conducted before the Padres actually added to their rotation Wednesday by agreeing to sign right-hander Nick Pivetta, it’s fair to ask: Is Cease still the most likely player in MLB to get dealt this spring?
On second thought, let’s also ask: Is he even the most likely Padre to get dealt this spring?
That second question seems as relevant as the first question, since four different Padres got votes in this survey: batting champ Luis Arraez (two), starter Michael King (two), closer Robert Suarez (two) and Cease.
All the indicators were pointing toward a major sell-off, with Cease the headliner. Multiple front-office executives reported that they’d been talking to the Padres for weeks about him. Another summed up the state of that team with this vote: “Pick a Padre.”
But then, in the past day or two, the tone abruptly shifted. As Dennis Lin reported in The Athletic, and several execs in this survey echoed, the Padres began signaling to other teams that they were likely to keep both Cease and King.
Asked Thursday if the Pivetta signing changed the likelihood of the Padres trading a starter, one American League exec replied: “I don’t think so anymore. Feels like they’re trying to win it.”
Another rival exec cast a vote for Cease but on Thursday said he now thought a trade was a long shot. The Padres were trying to win, he said, so they wouldn’t move Cease for prospects. While he was still available, it would only be for “a perfect need-for-need fit,” the exec said. And yet another exec reported the Padres no longer were indicating they needed to do any major slashing of payroll.
That means the correct answer to the question, Who’s the most likely Padre to get traded? isn’t Cease anymore. It’s almost certainly Suarez — so the team can clean his $10 million salary off the books.
One thing we know from last year is, if there’s any general manager in baseball who has no fear of making a big, potentially roster-shaking deal in spring training, it’s the Padres’ president of baseball operations, A.J. Preller. So keep your eye on this team all spring.
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How does Bregman impact Arenado?
Nolan Arenado was the runner-up in this survey. And why wouldn’t he be? The Cardinals were so determined this winter to make sure the world knew he was available, it’s amazing they didn’t drop his name on Craigslist.
But there were always two gigantic X-factors hanging over this closeout sale. One was Arenado’s no-trade clause, which he used in December to block a deal that would have sent him to Houston. The other was a guy named Alex Bregman.
Now Bregman has landed in Arenado’s preferred destination, in Boston. Aaaanddd Bregman took all winter to choose a team, taking other options off the board. So where is Arenado going now? Unless somebody gets hurt this spring, that would almost certainly be right back to St. Louis.
The teams that make sense — Toronto and Seattle — are clubs he’d be unlikely to approve a trade to join. And the places he’d like to go don’t seem to think they need him, at least not after the worst season of his career.
“If the market was big, he’d already have been gone,” said one rival exec, “because I know the Cardinals were absolutely actively looking to deal him.”
It’s fair to wonder how uncomfortable he’ll be in St. Louis after all this. But as one exec put it Thursday morning, that answer is obviously: “More comfortable than Toronto!”
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So is Robert next?
Luis Robert Jr. is under team control through the 2027 season. (Rick Osentoski / Imagn Images)
If the White Sox could make the deal of the year last spring, who’s to say they can’t make the deal of the year this spring? Not the six voters who dropped Robert’s name on their Most Likely to Get Traded ballot.
But all that really tells us is something we’ve known for months: He’s the name at the top of the White Sox’s Everything Must Go list. Does that mean he’ll actually get traded in the next few weeks? Don’t bet your Lou Malnati’s Deep Dish gift card on it.
The White Sox have the same problem moving Robert now that they had in July — and all winter. He’s coming off his worst year ever (.224/.278/.379) — but he’s still being priced as a star. Could even a big spring change that perception? Sorry. Don’t see it.
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Montgomery needs a home
He had the worst ERA (6.23) and WHIP (1.65) of any pitcher in baseball who worked at least 110 innings last season. His owner ripped him publicly. And then his team, the Arizona Diamondbacks, went out and signed Corbin Burnes to remove any last doubt that Montgomery could pitch his way back into their rotation.
So the divorce between Montgomery and the Diamondbacks is coming. And you know how we could tell the D-Backs just doubled down on their frenetic efforts to trade him?
• He showed up on zero of the first 24 ballots cast in this Most Likely to Get Traded survey.
• He then got four votes just from the last eight voters, all in a period of 48 hours.
Does that seem like some weird, random voting glitch to you? It doesn’t to us! He’s a tough guy to trade — right now. But if anyone on that list above could pump up his stock with a big spring, he’d get our vote.
So Montgomery might not have won this particular election. But who’s more likely to get traded than him between now and the end of March? That answer might be: Nobody.
Who else got votes?
Here they come – every player who showed up on anybody’s Most Likely to get Traded ballot, other than the four guys on that leaderboard above and the other Padres we mentioned. Unless noted, they all received one vote apiece:
Blue Jays — Vlad Guerrero Jr. (2), Bo Bichette
Mets — Starling Marte, Jeff McNeil
Red Sox — Triston Casas, Masataka Yoshida, David Hamilton
Yankees — Marcus Stroman
Marlins — Sandy Alcantara (2)
Cubs — Seiya Suzuki
Giants — Mike Yastrzemski
Phillies — Alec Bohm
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Cardinals — Steven Matz
It’s possible nobody on this list changes teams between now and Opening Day. On the other hand, remember this:
Every one of these names comes from people who work inside the game, not from your cousin’s college buddy on Reddit. So when they start casting their votes, you know who should pay attention? Every one of us.
GO DEEPER
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(Illustration: Demetrius Robinson / The Athletic; Photos: Brandon Sloter / Getty Images, Dilip Vishwanat / Getty Images)
