Gov. Wes Moore’s State of the State speech offered a dose of humility from a leader who often defaults to arrogance. Moore’s admission that he hasn’t gotten everything right is the type of honesty we need from political leaders. His tone stood in contrast with the overconfidence and sunny assessments he tends to offer and hopefully represents his growing maturity as a political leader.
Like every elected leader, Moore deserves to face a competitive challenger in November. Maryland is struggling economically, we face new deficits every year and the cost of electricity and housing is climbing. Moore is right that some of these problems are tied to decisions made in Washington. As a governor entering his fourth year in office, however, it was his responsibility to prepare our state for the possibility of reduced federal spending and changed circumstances. Republicans have a chance to hold Moore accountable during this year’s campaign, but not if they nominate Dan Cox for governor.
Cox is unelectable in Maryland, and his decision to run is either naive or selfish. Either of these traits should disqualify him in the eyes of Republican primary voters. In 2022, it was unlikely that Cox could compete as a Donald Trump acolyte in a state where most voters dislike the president. His decision to try again in 2026 is absurd, and Cox is sure to repeat his previous performance and lose the gubernatorial election by 30 points or more. If Republicans are serious about competing in Maryland, they must offer a candidate who improves the party’s image in the eyes of Maryland’s non-Republican voters.
Former Gov. Larry Hogan was sometimes criticized for not increasing the vote share for Maryland Republicans. Hogan tried, but by nominating Cox in 2022 over the more electable Kelly Shulz, Republican voters missed an opportunity to create a party more in line with Hogan’s image. Hogan’s moderate views and his willingness to criticize President Trump gave him credibility with independents and centrist Democrats who otherwise tend to view Republicans as a lost cause. Dan Cox accomplishes the opposite.
To compete seriously, Maryland Republicans will have to compromise on some positions rather than double down on their unpopular brand. Compromise begins with choosing candidates as well-matched as possible to Maryland’s electorate, even if these candidates aren’t as ideologically pure as many Republicans would prefer. Cox may represent everything that many Republicans want in Maryland, but he doesn’t represent anything that can win.
Changing the fortunes of the Republican Party in Maryland will take time. Republicans would benefit from looking at the 2026 election as one part of a longer-term struggle for relevance in state government. With Hogan out of the race, it’s unlikely that any Republican stands more than a small chance of defeating Moore, but electoral victories aren’t everything.
Senate Minority Leader Steve Hershey would offer Maryland voters a sober and thoughtful leader who would challenge their stereotypical view of Republicans. Hershey’s demeanor is far from Trumpian, and he’s likely to feel approachable to independents and centrist Democrats. His response to Moore’s State of the State address was measured and fair. Hershey believes that smaller government, lower taxes and less regulation can improve the lives of Marylanders. He also believes that personal responsibility and a degree of self-reliance are part of what creates a satisfying life. This can sound counterintuitive in a state like Maryland, where most voters see government revenue and government interventions as always contributing to the public good. Republicans can nonetheless advance their message if they explain their ideas in compassionate language and use messengers with the demeanor to break through.
Running for governor as a Republican in Maryland is a long shot, but winning isn’t impossible. Moore’s 61% approval rating in a Morning Consult poll is higher than the 52% he earned last month in a Gonzales Research poll, but nowhere near the 77% Hogan achieved at the end of his tenure. Win or lose, Republicans should care about putting in a respectable showing this fall. They should care about appealing to the middle and show a willingness to criticize the president when his actions don’t align with their values or judgment. Republicans should care about being taken seriously in Maryland and withhold their support from any candidate who promises nothing more than the same tactics and behavior that pushed them to the brink of irrelevance. Choosing the right candidate in 2026 can set the conditions for their future success, even if that candidate is unlikely to win. Nominating Cox and then expecting elected Republicans to endorse his candidacy erodes the party’s credibility with everyone except the base.
Maryland politics plays out as a conversation between segments of the political left. This creates the type of echo chamber that makes it difficult to look at policies objectively and keeps our state moving farther and faster in a single direction. Moore and Democrats in the legislature will be careful not to raise taxes this year because of the election, but closing the multibillion-dollar deficits facing Maryland in the years ahead will almost certainly require new sources of revenue. Without a viable Republican Party, there’s no one to point out the negative case for increasing taxes and fees. There’s no one to hold Democratic leaders accountable for showing their policies are working. Dan Cox will not only lose this year’s gubernatorial election, but he’ll also harm the reputation of his party in ways that guarantee Republicans remain a political force that Democrats can ignore.
Colin Pascal ([email protected]) is a retired Army lieutenant colonel and a graduate student in the School of Public Affairs at American University. He lives in Annapolis.
