U.S. officials are investigating whether the Kremlin is behind a series of attempts to place incendiary devices aboard DHL cargo planes this summer in Germany, England and Poland.
Multiple devices were detonated at DHL logistic hubs in Leipzig, Birmingham and Warsaw.
Lithuanian officials on Monday claimed that the explosions “were part of a test run for a Russian plot to trigger explosions on cargo flights to the United States [and Canada]” Targeting civilian aircraft is beneath the pale. Yet Russia has a long history of downing airliners — and it has become part of the Kremlin’s playbook.
In 1983, Korean Airlines Flight 007 was flying from Anchorage to Seoul when it was shot down by an air-to-air missile launched by a Soviet Sukhoi Su-15 fighter jet. The Boeing 747 airliner had deviated from its route and flown into restricted air space over the Kamchatka Peninsula.
Sadly, 269 people were killed, including U.S. Congressman Larry McDonald. Then-Soviet leader Yuri Andropov quickly blamed the U.S., claiming the civilian jet had been on a spy mission. Intentional or not, the Russians learned the consequences of targeting civilians.
The Cold War was reaching new heights. President Ronald Reagan had labeled the Soviet Union the “Evil Empire” and Americans increasingly were swamped with movies and TV series such as “The Day After” and “Red Dawn.”
Serendipity or not, the Kremlin had learned how to bring the Cold War into American movie theaters and living rooms, underscoring for all American citizens that they were potentially in Moscow’s crosshairs.
Fast forward to 2014. Russian President Vladimir Putin clearly has not forgotten this Soviet era lesson.
Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 was shot down by a Russian-made BUK surface-to-air missile over airspace controlled by Russian and pro-Kremlin military forces in eastern Ukraine. Two hundred and ninety-eight civilians were killed, including 80 children. Predictably, Putin blamed Ukraine.
One day later, Putin disingenuously said, “I would like to note that this tragedy would not have occurred if there were peace in that country, or in any case, if hostilities had not resumed in southeast Ukraine.” Putin, of course, ignored that Russia had just forcibly annexed Crimea from Ukraine.
Civilians, in his mind, were now fair game. Now, as his “special military operation” in Ukraine falters, Mad Vlad is focused on creating a new “Red Dawn” for Washington and Brussels to escalate his war against the West — and downing civilian airliners and cargo jets could be one means to that end.
Human life, civilian or otherwise, has little value to Putin. It is simply a means to his imperial ends. An incredible 701,650 Russians are now dead or wounded as a result of his war in Ukraine. And he shows no signs of stopping, adding as many as 10,000 North Korean soldiers to Ukraine’s “meat grinder.”
As we first wrote in July, “although Putin’s generals are failing on the battlefields of Ukraine, Russia’s [intelligence service] is succeeding, conducting espionage, disinformation, sabotage and assassinations. And with Putin at the helm, they may have become the main effort.”
If Putin is targeting civilian jets, it is not happening in a vacuum. The Kremlin is also waging an espionage and sabotage war against the West — especially in Europe. Now, it seems, Putin is prepared to bring this kind of asymmetrical war to the shores and airspace of America.
Notably, a warehouse fire on a U.S. Army supply base in Busan, South Korea occurred on October 24 — just as reports of North Korean troops in Russia were being verified.
Mad Vlad’s overarching calculus is likely intended to create another 9/1l-like effect to the U.S. economy. Paralyzing transatlantic air cargo and airline travel not only would be highly disruptive, but economically damaging. In the aftermath of 9/11, real GDP fell by 0.5 percent and 598,000 jobs were lost.
His hope? That by kinetically bringing the war in Ukraine home to the American people or at least appearing to do so, Putin is trying to foster the same kind of reactionary Hollywood hysteria that it did in the 1980s.
Significantly, six polling stations in Georgia on Tuesday were threatened by what were deemed by the FBI as non-credible threats from Russian actors. The FBI’s spokesperson indicated there were similar threats to polling precincts in multiple states — “many of which appear to originate from Russian email domains.”
The groundwork for this new Russian “Red Dawn” is already being laid in Europe. Mark Rutte, NATO’s new secretary-general, said on Monday that, “Russia is conducting…an intensifying campaign of hybrid attacks across our allied territories, interfering directly in our democracies, sabotaging industry and committing violence.”
Rutte continued saying, “This shows that the shift of the frontline in this war is no longer solely in Ukraine. Increasingly, the frontline is moving beyond borders to the Baltic region, to Western Europe and even to the high north.”
But calling it out is not enough — where is the response? Where is the line in the sand? Especially as it is also spreading globally to the Americas and arguably in the Indo-Pacific, including the two Koreas.
Putin’s emerging “Red Dawn” is global in construct, reach and aim. He desperately needs to broaden the battlefield beyond Ukraine to win his ever-growing kinetic war against Washington and Brussels.
This fight is not going away. Putin is determined to completely destroy the post-World War II global order.
Going forward, it is critical that the West understand that it is in an existential war with Putin and increasingly with Chinese President Xi Jinping. And just as they are relying on their Axis of Evil partners — Iran and North Korea — it is vital that NATO understands that its response to stop this growing “Red Dawn” hinges on two things.
One, Ukraine must become part of NATO. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, his generals and the AFU have already earned that right.
Two, Brussels must recognize that its role is now global in nature – and that it must partner with its Asian allies to create a two-ocean defense against Russia and China. NATO in that regard can no longer simply be an Atlantic centric organization. It also must be able to defend European and North American interests in the Pacific.
Putin’s “Red Dawn” can and should be his end. His targeting of civilian jetliners is a red line that the Biden White House, NATO and the incoming Trump administration must not leave unaddressed.
Mark Toth writes on national security and foreign policy. Col. (Ret.) Jonathan Sweet served 30 years as an Army intelligence officer.
